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Global and regional impacts differ between transient and equilibrium warmer worlds

Author

Listed:
  • Andrew D. King

    (University of Melbourne
    University of Melbourne)

  • Todd P. Lane

    (University of Melbourne
    University of Melbourne)

  • Benjamin J. Henley

    (University of Melbourne
    University of Melbourne
    Monash University)

  • Josephine R. Brown

    (University of Melbourne
    University of Melbourne)

Abstract

There has recently been interest in understanding the differences between specific levels of global warming, especially the Paris Agreement limits of 1.5 °C and 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. However, different model experiments1–3 have been used in these analyses under varying rates of increase in global-average temperature. Here, we use climate model simulations to show that, for a given global temperature, most land is significantly warmer in a rapidly warming (transient) case than in a quasi-equilibrium climate. This results in more than 90% of the world’s population experiencing a warmer local climate under transient global warming than equilibrium global warming. Relative to differences between the 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming limits, the differences between transient and quasi-equilibrium states are substantial. For many land regions, the probability of very warm seasons is at least two times greater in a transient climate than in a quasi-equilibrium equivalent. In developing regions, there are sizable differences between transient and quasi-equilibrium climates that underline the importance of explicitly framing projections. Our study highlights the need to better understand differences between future climates under rapid warming and quasi-equilibrium conditions for the development of climate change adaptation policies. Yet, current multi-model experiments1,4 are not designed for this purpose.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew D. King & Todd P. Lane & Benjamin J. Henley & Josephine R. Brown, 2020. "Global and regional impacts differ between transient and equilibrium warmer worlds," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 10(1), pages 42-47, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:10:y:2020:i:1:d:10.1038_s41558-019-0658-7
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-019-0658-7
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    Cited by:

    1. Luke J. Harrington & Kristie L. Ebi & David J. Frame & Friederike E. L. Otto, 2022. "Integrating attribution with adaptation for unprecedented future heatwaves," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 172(1), pages 1-7, May.
    2. Pinya Wang & Yang Yang & Daokai Xue & Lili Ren & Jianping Tang & L. Ruby Leung & Hong Liao, 2023. "Aerosols overtake greenhouse gases causing a warmer climate and more weather extremes toward carbon neutrality," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.
    3. Chao Hu & Jin Fan & Jian Chen, 2022. "Spatial and Temporal Characteristics and Drivers of Agricultural Carbon Emissions in Jiangsu Province, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(19), pages 1-21, September.
    4. Laurent Drouet & Valentina Bosetti & Simone A. Padoan & Lara Aleluia Reis & Christoph Bertram & Francesco Dalla Longa & Jacques Després & Johannes Emmerling & Florian Fosse & Kostas Fragkiadakis & Ste, 2021. "Net zero-emission pathways reduce the physical and economic risks of climate change," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 11(12), pages 1070-1076, December.

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