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Reductions in 2020 US life expectancy due to COVID-19 and the disproportionate impact on the Black and Latino populations

Author

Listed:
  • Theresa Andrasfay

    (Leonard Davis School of Gerontology, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA 90089)

  • Noreen Goldman

    (Office of Population Research, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544)

Abstract

COVID-19 has resulted in a staggering death toll in the United States: over 215,000 by mid-October 2020, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Black and Latino Americans have experienced a disproportionate burden of COVID-19 morbidity and mortality, reflecting persistent structural inequalities that increase risk of exposure to COVID-19 and mortality risk for those infected. We estimate life expectancy at birth and at age 65 y for 2020, for the total US population and by race and ethnicity, using four scenarios of deaths—one in which the COVID-19 pandemic had not occurred and three including COVID-19 mortality projections produced by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. Our medium estimate indicates a reduction in US life expectancy at birth of 1.13 y to 77.48 y, lower than any year since 2003. We also project a 0.87-y reduction in life expectancy at age 65 y. The Black and Latino populations are estimated to experience declines in life expectancy at birth of 2.10 and 3.05 y, respectively, both of which are several times the 0.68-y reduction for Whites. These projections imply an increase of nearly 40% in the Black−White life expectancy gap, from 3.6 y to over 5 y, thereby eliminating progress made in reducing this differential since 2006. Latinos, who have consistently experienced lower mortality than Whites (a phenomenon known as the Latino or Hispanic paradox), would see their more than 3-y survival advantage reduced to less than 1 y.

Suggested Citation

  • Theresa Andrasfay & Noreen Goldman, 2021. "Reductions in 2020 US life expectancy due to COVID-19 and the disproportionate impact on the Black and Latino populations," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 118(5), pages 2014746118-, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:nas:journl:v:118:y:2021:p:e2014746118
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    Cited by:

    1. Elizabeth Arias & Betzaida Tejada-Vera, 2023. "Differential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on excess mortality and life expectancy loss within the Hispanic population," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 48(12), pages 339-352.
    2. Karl Ulrich Mayer, 2022. "Aspects of a sociology of the pandemic: Inequalities and the life course," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 20(1), pages 15-37.
    3. Thomas B. Foster & Leticia Fernandez & Sonya R. Porter & Nikolas Pharris-Ciurej, 2022. "Age, Sex, and Racial/Ethnic Disparities and Temporal-Spatial Variation in Excess All-Cause Mortality During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Evidence from Linked Administrative and Census Bureau Data," Working Papers 22-18, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    4. Augusto Cerqua & Roberta Di Stefano & Marco Letta & Sara Miccoli, 2021. "Was there a COVID-19 harvesting effect in Northern Italy?," Papers 2103.01812, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2021.
    5. Okeke, Edward N., 2022. "Playing defense? Health care in the era of Covid," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    6. Elizabeth Brainerd, 2021. "Mortality in Russia Since the Fall of the Soviet Union," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 63(4), pages 557-576, December.
    7. Fuhmei Wang & Jung-Der Wang, 2022. "Estimating US Earnings Loss Associated with COVID-19 Based on Human Capital Calculation," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(2), pages 1-10, January.
    8. Andrea M. Tilstra & Antonino Polizzi & Sander Wagner & Evelina T. Akimova, 2024. "Projecting the long-term effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on U.S. population structure," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-10, December.
    9. Caroline de Fátima Ribeiro Silva & Daniela Gonçalves Ohara & Areolino Pena Matos & Ana Carolina Pereira Nunes Pinto & Maycon Sousa Pegorari, 2021. "Short Physical Performance Battery as a Measure of Physical Performance and Mortality Predictor in Older Adults: A Comprehensive Literature Review," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(20), pages 1-15, October.
    10. Kimberly M. Horner & Elizabeth Wrigley-Field & Jonathon P. Leider, 2022. "A First Look: Disparities in COVID-19 Mortality Among US-Born and Foreign-Born Minnesota Residents," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 41(2), pages 465-478, April.
    11. Patrick Heuveline, 2022. "Global and National Declines in Life Expectancy: An End‐of‐2021 Assessment," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 48(1), pages 31-50, March.
    12. Marcella Alsan & Amitabh Chandra & Kosali Simon, 2021. "The Great Unequalizer: Initial Health Effects of COVID-19 in the United States," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 35(3), pages 25-46, Summer.
    13. Chiara Acquati & Tzuan A. Chen & Isabel Martinez Leal & Shahnjayla K. Connors & Arooba A. Haq & Anastasia Rogova & Stephanie Ramirez & Lorraine R. Reitzel & Lorna H. McNeill, 2021. "The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Cancer Care and Health-Related Quality of Life of Non-Hispanic Black/African American, Hispanic/Latina and Non-Hispanic White Women Diagnosed with Breast Cancer ," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(24), pages 1-16, December.
    14. Lawrence A. Palinkas & Jessenia De Leon & Erika Salinas & Sonali Chu & Katharine Hunter & Timothy M. Marshall & Eric Tadehara & Christopher M. Strnad & Jonathan Purtle & Sarah McCue Horwitz & Mary M. , 2021. "Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Child and Adolescent Mental Health Policy and Practice Implementation," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(18), pages 1-21, September.
    15. Charles R. Rogers & David G. Perdue & Kenneth Boucher & Kevin M. Korous & Ellen Brooks & Ethan Petersen & John M. Inadomi & Fa Tuuhetaufa & Ronald F. Levant & Electra D. Paskett, 2022. "Masculinity Barriers to Ever Completing Colorectal Cancer Screening among American Indian/Alaska Native, Black, and White Men (Ages 45–75)," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(5), pages 1-12, March.
    16. Jakina Debnam Guzman & Marie Christelle Mabeu & Roland Pongou, 2021. "Identity During a Pandemic: COVID-19 and Ethnic Divisions in the United States," Working Papers 2101E Classification-I14,, University of Ottawa, Department of Economics.
    17. Noreen Goldman & Theresa Andrasfay, 2022. "Life expectancy loss among Native Americans during the COVID-19 pandemic," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 47(9), pages 233-246.
    18. Katherine Leggat-Barr & Fumiya Uchikoshi & Noreen Goldman, 2021. "COVID-19 risk factors and mortality among Native Americans," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 45(39), pages 1185-1218.
    19. Quang Dang Nguyen & Mikhail Prokopenko, 2022. "A general framework for optimising cost-effectiveness of pandemic response under partial intervention measures," Papers 2205.08996, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2022.
    20. Anne Case & Angus Deaton, 2021. "Mortality Rates by College Degree Before and During COVID-19," NBER Working Papers 29328, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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