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Long-term decline in intergenerational mobility in the United States since the 1850s

Author

Listed:
  • Xi Song

    (Department of Sociology, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA 19104)

  • Catherine G. Massey

    (Welch Consulting)

  • Karen A. Rolf

    (University of Nebraska at Omaha)

  • Joseph P. Ferrie

    (Northwestern University)

  • Jonathan L. Rothbaum

    (US Census Bureau)

  • Yu Xie

    (Princeton University)

Abstract

We make use of newly available data that include roughly 5 million linked household and population records from 1850 to 2015 to document long-term trends in intergenerational social mobility in the United States. Intergenerational mobility declined substantially over the past 150 y, but more slowly than previously thought. Intergenerational occupational rank–rank correlations increased from less than 0.17 to as high as 0.32, but most of this change occurred to Americans born before 1900. After controlling for the relatively high mobility of persons from farm origins, we find that intergenerational social mobility has been remarkably stable. In contrast with relative stability in rank-based measures of mobility, absolute mobility for the nonfarm population—the fraction of offspring whose occupational ranks are higher than those of their parents—increased for birth cohorts born prior to 1900 and has fallen for those born after 1940.

Suggested Citation

  • Xi Song & Catherine G. Massey & Karen A. Rolf & Joseph P. Ferrie & Jonathan L. Rothbaum & Yu Xie, 2020. "Long-term decline in intergenerational mobility in the United States since the 1850s," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 117(1), pages 251-258, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:nas:journl:v:117:y:2020:p:251-258
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Berger, Thor & Engzell, Per & Eriksson, Björn & Molinder, Jakob, 2023. "Social Mobility in Sweden before the Welfare State," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 83(2), pages 431-463, June.
    2. Zachary Ward, 2023. "Intergenerational Mobility in American History: Accounting for Race and Measurement Error," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 113(12), pages 3213-3248, December.
    3. Sharps, Daron L. & Anderson, Cameron, 2021. "Social class background, disjoint agency, and hiring decisions," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 129-143.
    4. Pujadas-Mora, Joana-Maria & Brea-Martinez, Gabriel, 2020. "The increasing influence of siblings in social mobility. A long-term historical view (Barcelona area, 16th-19th centuries)," SocArXiv sf6vj, Center for Open Science.
    5. Ulrika Ahrsjö & René Karadakic & Joachim Kahr Rasmussen, 2021. "Intergenerational Mobility Trends and the Changing Role of Female Labor," CEBI working paper series 21-19, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. The Center for Economic Behavior and Inequality (CEBI).

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