IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/mnb/finrev/v16y2017ispecialissuep21-49.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Dilemmas of China’s Shift in Growth Trajectory and Economic Governance

Author

Listed:
  • Miklós Losoncz

    (Research professor at the Financial Institutions Department of the Institute of Finance and Accounting of the Budapest Business School's Faculty of Finance and Accountancy Studies of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences)

Abstract

The slowdown in China’s GDP growth in recent years suggests the exhaustion of the driving forces of extensive economic growth and signals a need to switch to an intensive growth trajectory. In order to successfully orchestrate this shift, a reform of the economy’s operation is necessary, including a change in economic policy objectives in order to avoid the middle income trap. This paper analyses the changing role of the sources of economic growth and the main features of the change in the growth trajectory in the post-2010 period, and their relationships with economic governance based on the relevant domestic and international literature and statistical data, without entering into specific details. According to the author’s hypothesis, the Chinese government is prioritising the conflicting objectives of economic rationality and socio-political stability at the expense of the former

Suggested Citation

  • Miklós Losoncz, 2017. "The Dilemmas of China’s Shift in Growth Trajectory and Economic Governance," Financial and Economic Review, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 16(Sepcial I), pages 21-49.
    • Handle: RePEc:mnb:finrev:v:16:y:2017:i:specialissue:p:21-49
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://english.hitelintezetiszemle.hu/letoltes/miklos-losoncz.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Aiyar, Shekhar & Duval, Romain & Puy, Damien & Wu, Yiqun & Zhang, Longmei, 2018. "Growth slowdowns and the middle-income trap," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 22-37.
    2. Sarmiza Pencea & Ana-Cristina Bâlgăr, 2016. "China’s Transition to the Innovation-Driven Economy: Stepping Stones and Road-Blocks," Global Economic Observer, "Nicolae Titulescu" University of Bucharest, Faculty of Economic Sciences;Institute for World Economy of the Romanian Academy, vol. 4(1), pages 31-46, May.
    3. Christine Wong, 2011. "The Fiscal Stimulus Programme and Public Governance Issues in China," OECD Journal on Budgeting, OECD Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 1-22.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Laura Komlóssy & Gyöngyi Vargáné Körmendi, 2019. "China in Search of Equilibrium – Transition Dilemmas of Growth and Stability," Financial and Economic Review, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 18(3), pages 114-134.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fabrizio Zilibotti, 2017. "Growing and Slowing Down Like China," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 15(5), pages 943-988.
    2. Ms. Ghada Fayad & Mr. Roberto Perrelli, 2014. "Growth Surprises and Synchronized Slowdowns in Emerging Markets––An Empirical Investigation," IMF Working Papers 2014/173, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Helmut K. Anheier & Robert Falkner & Alanna Krolikowski, 2017. "Brittle China? Economic and Political Fragility with Global Implications," Global Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 8(s4), pages 42-53, June.
    4. Xiao Tan & Lei Yu, 2022. "Has recentralisation improved equality? Primary care infrastructure development in China," Asia and the Pacific Policy Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(2), pages 115-133, May.
    5. Hao, Qian & Shi, Xiangyan & Bu, Danlu, 2018. "The Chinese stimulus program from 2008 to 2010 and accounting information quality," Journal of International Accounting, Auditing and Taxation, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 64-78.
    6. Arvind Subramanian, 2013. "Preserving the Open Global Economic System: A Strategic Blueprint for China and the United States," Policy Briefs PB13-16, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    7. Rahul Anand & Mr. Kevin C Cheng & Sidra Rehman & Ms. Longmei Zhang, 2014. "Potential Growth in Emerging Asia," IMF Working Papers 2014/002, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Janusz Heller & Rafal Warzala, 2018. "Is Poland in a middle income trap? A theoretical and empirical analysis," Ekonomia i Prawo, Uniwersytet Mikolaja Kopernika, vol. 17(4), pages 367-381, December.
    9. Glawe, Linda & Wagner, Helmut, 2017. "The Deep Determinants at More Subtle Stages of Development: The Example of the Middle-Income Trap Phenomenon," CEAMeS Discussion Paper Series 11/2017, University of Hagen, Center for East Asia Macro-economic Studies (CEAMeS), revised 2017.
    10. Tan Khee Giap & Sasidaran Gopalan & Nursyahida Ahmad, 2018. "Growth Slowdown Analysis for Indonesia’s Subnational Economies: An Empirical Investigation," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 21(03), pages 1-36, September.
    11. Amir Lebdioui & Keun Lee & Carlo Pietrobelli, 2021. "Local-foreign technology interface, resource-based development, and industrial policy: how Chile and Malaysia are escaping the middle-income trap," The Journal of Technology Transfer, Springer, vol. 46(3), pages 660-685, June.
    12. Lili Wang & Yi Wen, 2018. "Escaping the Middle-Income Trap: A Cross-Country Analysis on the Patterns of Industrial Upgrading," Working Papers 2018-1, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    13. Prajapati Vishwajeet Singh & Priya Ashutosh & Pradhan Vikas, 2023. "The middle-income trap – a problem of definition and empirical research," Economic and Regional Studies / Studia Ekonomiczne i Regionalne, Sciendo, vol. 16(3), pages 459-472, September.
    14. Kaiji Chen & Haoyu Gao & Patrick Higgins & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2023. "Monetary Stimulus amidst the Infrastructure Investment Spree: Evidence from China's Loan‐Level Data," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 78(2), pages 1147-1204, April.
    15. Linda Glawe & Helmut Wagner, 2016. "The Middle-Income Trap: Definitions, Theories and Countries Concerned—A Literature Survey," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 58(4), pages 507-538, December.
    16. Otsuka, Keijiro & Higuchi, Yuki & Sonobe, Tetsushi, 2017. "Middle-income traps in East Asia: An inquiry into causes for slowdown in income growth," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(S), pages 3-16.
    17. Aiyar, Shekhar & Ebeke, Christian, 2020. "Inequality of opportunity, inequality of income and economic growth," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    18. Vivarelli, Marco, 2018. "Globalisation, structural change and innovation in emerging economies: The impact on employment and skills," MERIT Working Papers 2018-037, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    19. repec:bla:glopol:v:8:y:2017:i::p:42-53 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Charles Gore, 2017. "Late industrialisation, urbanisation and the middle-income trap: an analytical approach and the case of Vietnam," Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 10(1), pages 35-57.
    21. Kalinowski, Thomas, 2013. "Crisis management and the varieties of capitalism: Fiscal stimulus packages and the transformation of East Asian state-led capitalism since 2008," Discussion Papers, Project Group Modes of Economic Governance SP III 2013-501, WZB Berlin Social Science Center.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    China; growth trajectory; change in economic model; structural reforms; liberalisation; foreign trade policy; middle income trap;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East
    • F60 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mnb:finrev:v:16:y:2017:i:specialissue:p:21-49. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Morvay Endre (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/mnbgvhu.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.