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Trade liberalization, the income elasticity of demand for imports, and growth in Latin America

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  • Penélope López
  • A. Thirlwall

Abstract

This paper applies the balance-of-payments-constrained growth model to 17 countries of Latin America over the period 1977-2002. The crucial parameter to estimate is the income elasticity of demand for imports, which is done for Latin America as a whole and for individual countries. As well as estimating over the whole period, the technique of rolling regressions is also used to test whether a trend increase can be discerned as a result of trade liberalization. A trend increase is found for Latin America as a whole and for some individual countries, and the balance-of-payments equilibrium growth rate is a good predictor of growth performance in nine of the 17 countries. There is no evidence that the balance-of-payments equilibrium growth rate has increased in Latin America as a result of trade liberalization.

Suggested Citation

  • Penélope López & A. Thirlwall, 2006. "Trade liberalization, the income elasticity of demand for imports, and growth in Latin America," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(1), pages 41-61.
    • Handle: RePEc:mes:postke:v:29:y:2006:i:1:p:41-61
    DOI: 10.2753/PKE0160-3477290103
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Bilge Erten, 2010. "Industrial Upgrading and Export Diversification: A Comparative Analysis of Economic Policies in Turkey and Malaysia," Working Papers id:2778, eSocialSciences.
    2. Mario Cimoli & Jose Antonio Ocampo & Gabriel Porcile & Nunzia Saporito, 2020. "Choosing sides in the trilemma: international financial cycles and structural change in developing economies," Economics of Innovation and New Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(7), pages 740-761, October.
    3. Cimoli, Mario & Porcile, Gabriel, 2011. "Tecnologia, heterogeneidad y crecimiento: una caja de herramientas estructuralista [Technology, heterogeneity and Growth: A Structuralist Toolbox]," MPRA Paper 33801, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Peter Dorman, 2007. "Low Savings or a High Trade Deficit?:," Challenge, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(4), pages 49-64.
    5. Andre Nassif & Carmem Aparecida Feijo & Eliane Araújo, 2016. "Structural change, catching up and falling behind in the BRICS: A comparative analysis based on trade pattern and Thirlwall’s Law," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 69(279), pages 373-421.
    6. Mario Cimoli & Gabriel Porcile, 2014. "Technology, structural change and BOP-constrained growth: a structuralist toolbox," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 38(1), pages 215-237.
    7. Elias Soukiazis & Pedro Cerqueira & Micaela Antunes, 2013. "Growth rates constrained by internal and external imbalances and the role of relative prices: empirical evidence from Portugal," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(2), pages 275-298.
    8. Maja Kadievska-Vojnovic & Danica Unevska, 2007. "Price and Income Elasticities of Export and Import and Economic Growth in the case of the Republic of Macedonia," Working Papers 2007-01, National Bank of the Republic of North Macedonia.
    9. Saleem Khan & Muhammad Azam & Chandra Emirullah, 2016. "Import Demand Income Elasticity and Growth Rate in Pakistan," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 51(3), pages 201-212, August.
    10. Anthony Philip Thirlwall, 2012. "Balance of Payments Constrained Growth Models: History and Overview," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Elias Soukiazis & Pedro A. Cerqueira (ed.), Models of Balance of Payments Constrained Growth, chapter 1, pages 11-49, Palgrave Macmillan.
    11. A. P. Thirlwall, 2013. "Economic Growth in an Open Developing Economy," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 15208.
    12. Cimoli, Mario & Fleitas, Sebastian & Porcile, Gabriel, 2011. "Real Exchange Rate and the Structure of Exports," MPRA Paper 37846, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Gala, Paulo & Libânio, Gilberto, 2010. "Exchange rate policies, patterns of specialization and economic development: theory and evidence in developing countries," Textos para discussão 211, FGV EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Fundação Getulio Vargas (Brazil).
    14. Elias Soukiazis & Pedro André Cerqueira & Micaela Antunes, 2012. "Growth Rates Constrained by Internal and External Imbalances: A Demand-Orientated Approach," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Elias Soukiazis & Pedro A. Cerqueira (ed.), Models of Balance of Payments Constrained Growth, chapter 5, pages 144-167, Palgrave Macmillan.
    15. A.P. Thirlwall, 2018. "Una vita nell’economia," Moneta e Credito, Economia civile, vol. 71(283), pages 179-210.
    16. Pacheco-López, Penélope & Thirlwall, Anthony, 2009. "Has Trade Liberalisation in Poor Countries Delivered the Promises Ecpected?," Panorama Económico, Escuela Superior de Economía, Instituto Politécnico Nacional, vol. 0(08), pages 7-34, primer se.
    17. Cimoli, Mario & Pereima, João Basilio & Porcile, Gabriel, 2019. "A technology gap interpretation of growth paths in Asia and Latin America," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 125-136.

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