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The Impact of Monetary and Fiscal Policy Shocks on Stock Markets: Evidence from China

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  • Lei Hu
  • Junying Han
  • Qiang Zhang

Abstract

We study the impact of Chinese monetary and fiscal policy shocks and the interaction of the two policies on stock markets. We find that, first, when we focus on the contemporaneous correlation, Chinese fiscal policy has significant, negative contemporaneous relationships with stock market performance, while monetary policy’s impact on stock market performance varies, depending on the fiscal policy. Second, with respect to the lagged variables, Chinese monetary and fiscal policy both have a significant and direct positive effect on stock market performance. Meanwhile, interaction between the two policies plays an extremely important role in explaining the development of stock markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Lei Hu & Junying Han & Qiang Zhang, 2018. "The Impact of Monetary and Fiscal Policy Shocks on Stock Markets: Evidence from China," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(8), pages 1856-1871, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:mes:emfitr:v:54:y:2018:i:8:p:1856-1871
    DOI: 10.1080/1540496X.2018.1425610
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    Cited by:

    1. Michael Anthony Adams, 2020. "Fiscal Policy and Stock Market Efficiency in the USA: An ARDL Bounds Testing Approach," Journal of Accounting, Business and Finance Research, Scientific Publishing Institute, vol. 9(2), pages 73-81.
    2. Ming-Chu Chiang & I-Chun Tsai, 2020. "Importance of Proper Monetary Liquidity: Sustainable Development of the Housing and Stock Markets," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(21), pages 1-20, October.
    3. Shahida Perveen, Mustaghis-ur-Rahman, 2018. "Impact of Fiscal and Monetary Policies on Stock Market Performance: An Empirical Study of Pakistan Stock Exchange," Journal of Finance and Economics Research, Geist Science, Iqra University, Faculty of Business Administration, vol. 3(2), pages 2-23, October.
    4. Qureshi, Fiza & Kutan, Ali M. & Ghafoor, Abdul & Hussain Khan, Habib & Qureshi, Zeeshan, 2019. "Dynamics of mutual funds and stock markets in Asian developing economies," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    5. Dat Thanh Nguyen & Viet Anh Hoang, 2020. "Monetary Consequences of Fiscal Stress in a Game Theoretic Framework," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 9(special i), pages 125-164.

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