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Probability Forecasts of Macroaggregates in the Turkish Economy

Author

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  • Huseyin Kaya
  • M. Ege Yazgan

Abstract

We provide probability forecasts of key Turkish macroeconomic variables such as inflation and output growth. The probability forecasts are derived from a core vector error correction model of the Turkish economy and its several variants. We use model and window averaging to address uncertainties arising from estimated models and possible structural breaks. The performances of the different models and their combinations are evaluated using relevant forecast accuracy tests in different pseudo out-of-sample settings. The results indicate that successful directional forecasts can be obtained for output growth and inflation. Averaging over both the models and the estimation windows improves the level of accuracy of the forecasts.

Suggested Citation

  • Huseyin Kaya & M. Ege Yazgan, 2014. "Probability Forecasts of Macroaggregates in the Turkish Economy," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(2), pages 214-229, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:mes:emfitr:v:50:y:2014:i:2:p:214-229
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Melo, Luis F. & Loaiza, Rubén A. & Villamizar-Villegas, Mauricio, 2016. "Bayesian combination for inflation forecasts: The effects of a prior based on central banks’ estimates," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 387-397.
    2. Josef C. Brada & Jan KubÃ­Ä ek & Ali M. Kutan & Vladimír Tomšík, 2015. "Inflation Targeting: Insights from Behavioral Economics," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(5), pages 357-376, September.
    3. Mandalinci, Zeyyad, 2017. "Forecasting inflation in emerging markets: An evaluation of alternative models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 1082-1104.

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