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The Rationality of Federal Funds Rate Expectations: Evidence from a Survey: A Note

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  • Simon, David P

Abstract

This study finds that expectations of two-week maintenance period average federal funds rates, as measured by the Money Market Services survey from March 1984 to November 1987, are biased, only marginally outperform random walk forecasts, and have forecast errors that are correlated with in-sample information. However, these results are tempered by findings that the survey forecasts incorporate the information in out-of-sample ARIMA forecasts, although the latter are less accurate than random walk forecasts. In addition, the accuracy of the survey forecasts increases for maintenance periods in which the discount rate changes. Copyright 1989 by Ohio State University Press.

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  • Simon, David P, 1989. "The Rationality of Federal Funds Rate Expectations: Evidence from a Survey: A Note," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 21(3), pages 388-393, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:21:y:1989:i:3:p:388-93
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    Cited by:

    1. Hamid Baghestani, 2006. "An evaluation of the professional forecasts of U.S. long‐term interest rates," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 15(2), pages 177-191.
    2. Georges Prat & Remzi Uctum, 2016. "Do markets learn to rationally expect US interest rates? Evidence from survey data," Post-Print hal-01411824, HAL.
    3. Sagi Akron, 2016. "Business cycles and the expectations of short-term central bank rates in light of Construal Level Theory," Eurasian Business Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 6(2), pages 171-187, August.
    4. Chortareas, Georgios & Jitmaneeroj, Boonlert & Wood, Andrew, 2012. "Forecast rationality and monetary policy frameworks: Evidence from UK interest rate forecasts," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 209-231.
    5. Frederik Kunze, 2020. "Predicting exchange rates in Asia: New insights on the accuracy of survey forecasts," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(2), pages 313-333, March.
    6. Ramos-Tallada, Julio, 2015. "Bank risks, monetary shocks and the credit channel in Brazil: Identification and evidence from panel data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 135-161.
    7. Willem Thorbecke, 1992. "Social Security Investment Policy And Capital Formation," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 10(3), pages 26-38, July.
    8. Prat, Georges & Uctum, Remzi, 2021. "Term structure of interest rates: Modelling the risk premium using a two horizons framework," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 182(C), pages 421-436.
    9. Kunze, Frederik, 2017. "Predicting exchange rates in Asia: New insights on the accuracy of survey forecasts," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 326, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    10. Georges Prat & Remzi Uctum, 2018. "Term structure of interest rates: modelling the risk premium using a two horizons framework," Working Papers hal-04141774, HAL.
    11. Baghestani, Hamid, 2006. "An evaluation of the professional forecasts of U.S. long-term interest rates," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 177-191.
    12. Baghestani, Hamid, 2009. "Survey evidence on forecast accuracy of U.S. term spreads," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 156-162, August.
    13. Georges Prat & Remzi Uctum, 2016. "Do markets learn to rationally expect US interest rates? Evidence from survey data," Working Papers hal-04141591, HAL.
    14. Hamid Baghestani, 2009. "Survey evidence on forecast accuracy of U.S. term spreads," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 18(3), pages 156-162, August.
    15. Kunze, Frederik & Wegener, Christoph & Bizer, Kilian & Spiwoks, Markus, 2017. "Forecasting European interest rates in times of financial crisis – What insights do we get from international survey forecasts?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 192-205.
    16. Peter C. Liu, 1994. "Are Money Announcement Forecasts Rational?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 56(4), pages 475-483, November.
    17. Baghestani, Hamid, 2008. "A random walk approach to predicting US 30-year home mortgage rates," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 225-233, September.

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