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Modeling of Banks Bankruptcy in Iran (Multivariate Statistical Analysis)

Author

Listed:
  • Ahmadian , Azam

    (Monetary and Banking Research Institute (MBRI), Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran (CBI))

  • Mahsa , Gorji

Abstract

In this paper we construct a modeling for detection of banks which are experiencing serious problems. Sample and variable set of the study contains 30 banks of Iran during 2006-2014 and their financial ratios. Well known multivariate statistical technique (principal component analysis) was used to explore the basic financial characteristics of the banks, and discriminant Logit and Probit models were estimated based on these characteristics. Results suggest that the model can be used as an analytical decision support tool in both on-site and off-site bank monitoring system to detect the banks which are experiencing serious problems.

Suggested Citation

  • Ahmadian , Azam & Mahsa , Gorji, 2015. "Modeling of Banks Bankruptcy in Iran (Multivariate Statistical Analysis)," Journal of Money and Economy, Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, vol. 10(2), pages 1-24, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:mbr:jmonec:v:10:y:2015:i:2:p:1-24
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kolari, James & Glennon, Dennis & Shin, Hwan & Caputo, Michele, 2002. "Predicting large US commercial bank failures," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 361-387.
    2. Lam, Kim Fung & Moy, Jane W., 2002. "Combining discriminant methods in solving classification problems in two-group discriminant analysis," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 138(2), pages 294-301, April.
    3. Taha Zaghdoudi, 2013. "Bank Failure Prediction with Logistic Regression," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 3(2), pages 537-543.
    4. Kar Yan Tam & Melody Y. Kiang, 1992. "Managerial Applications of Neural Networks: The Case of Bank Failure Predictions," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 38(7), pages 926-947, July.
    5. Coleen C. Pantalone & Marjorie B. Platt, 1987. "Predicting commercial bank failure since deregulation," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Jul, pages 37-47.
    6. Canbas, Serpil & Cabuk, Altan & Kilic, Suleyman Bilgin, 2005. "Prediction of commercial bank failure via multivariate statistical analysis of financial structures: The Turkish case," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 166(2), pages 528-546, October.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bank failure; Principal component analysis; Logit; Probit;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C49 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Other
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation

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