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Egyenes vagy S alakú a Jánossy-féle trendvonal?. Hosszú távú egyensúlyi állapot Maddison adatai és az új növekedéselmélet tükrében
[A simple or an S-shaped Jánossy trend?. A long-term state of equilibrium in the light of Maddisons data and the new growth theory]

Author

Listed:
  • Tarján, Tamás

Abstract

A technológiakövető országok a technológiavezetők trendjével normált, hosszú távú növekedési pályája S alakú pályát követ. Több olyan növekedési modellt sikerült megalkotni, amelyek S alakú pályán érik el hosszú távú egyensúlyi (steady state) állapotukat, de mindezt naiv várakozású vagy rövidlátó fogyasztásoptimalizálással, nem pedig a több mint nyolc évtizede ismert és legelterjedtebb Ramsey-féle fogyasztásoptimalizálás módszerével. Jelen cikk a Ramsey-féle fogyasztásoptimalizálással kapcsolatban két új eredményt tartalmaz. Bebizonyítja, hogy 1. a Ramsey-féle optimalizálás az Aghion-Howitt-féle aggregált termelékenységi paraméterszabályozással párosítva nem képes az S alakú pálya modellezésére, 2. az Aghion-Howitt-féle aggregált szabályozás módszertani elvén alapuló, de a szabályozásba a tőkét is számba vevő, kissé módosított Aghion-Howitt-féle szabályozás képes az S alakú tranzíciós dinamika modellezésére. Journal of Economics Literatrure (JEL) kód: B22, C32, E13, O11, O33, O47, N10.

Suggested Citation

  • Tarján, Tamás, 2011. "Egyenes vagy S alakú a Jánossy-féle trendvonal?. Hosszú távú egyensúlyi állapot Maddison adatai és az új növekedéselmélet tükrében [A simple or an S-shaped Jánossy trend?. A long-term state of equi," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(6), pages 552-564.
    • Handle: RePEc:ksa:szemle:1249
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • B22 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Macroeconomics
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E13 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Neoclassical
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • N10 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - General, International, or Comparative

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