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Medium Term Projections of Demand for Labor With Higher Education and of Employed Population in Romania

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Author Info

  • Ion Ghizdeanu

    ()

  • Dorin Jula

    ()

  • Marioara Iordan

    ()

  • Mihaela Nona Chilian

    ()

  • Tiberiu Diaconescu

    ()
    ("Dimitrie Cantemir" Christian University)

Abstract

The projection model of demand for labor with higher education (MCFMSS) and medium-term forecasts make a consistent pattern, circumscribed to the standard macroeconomic theories, which adequately reflect the peculiarities of the Romanian economy and generates plausible results. Due to its complexity, the model is a true macromodel which relates the economic growth forecast with that of growth in employment in a detailed structure. The model has as the main exogenous variables the economy-wide GDP and gross value added by sectors. Starting from a Cobb-Douglas production function, the model proposes a growth scenario of employed population mainly to achieve the Europe 2020 objectives, based on the growth of activity rate, on a moderate GDP growth and on lower unemployment. Three scenarios were considered for all exogenous variables - reserved, moderate and optimistic, the moderate scenario being preferred because the data sets used were short.

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File URL: http://orizonturi.ucdc.ro/arhiva/2013_khe_2_pdf/khe_vol_5_iss_1_112to118.pdf
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File URL: http://orizonturi.ucdc.ro/arhiva/2013_khe_2_pdf/khe_vol_5_iss_1_112to118.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Faculty of Finance, Banking and Accountancy Bucharest,"Dimitrie Cantemir" Christian University Bucharest in its journal Knowledge Horizons - Economics.

Volume (Year): 5 (2013)
Issue (Month): 2 (June)
Pages: 112-118

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Handle: RePEc:khe:journl:v:5:y:2013:i:2:p:112-118

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Postal: Splaiul Unirii nr. 176, sector 4, Bucuresti
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Web page: http://fbc.ucdc.ro/
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Related research

Keywords: Labor demand; labor projection models; GDP and VAB forecast; employed population forecast;

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