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Intervention Analysis of Electoral Tax Cycle: The Case of Japan

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  • Yoo, Keum-Rok

Abstract

This paper analyzed the impact of elections on tax policy in Japan using an ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average)-intervention analysis from 1953 through 1992. The author used discretionary tax revenues, which means the changes in tax receipts attributable to changes in the tax code, rather than automatic tax revenues due to business cycles in the economy. The result of this study shows that there is a political tax cycle in Japan. That is, discretionary tax revenues decrease with a statistically significant amount in a year immediately before elections for the House of Representatives. This may be due to the fact that election timings in Japan with a parliamentary system become endogenous. Copyright 1998 by Kluwer Academic Publishers

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  • Yoo, Keum-Rok, 1998. "Intervention Analysis of Electoral Tax Cycle: The Case of Japan," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 96(3-4), pages 241-258, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:pubcho:v:96:y:1998:i:3-4:p:241-58
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Lami, Endrit & Imami, Drini & Pugh, Geoffrey & Hashi, Iraj, 2021. "Fiscal performance and elections in the context of a transition economy," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 45(2).
    2. Ashworth, John & Heyndels, Bruno, 2002. "Tax Structure Turbulence in OECD Countries," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 111(3-4), pages 347-376, June.
    3. Endrit Lami, 2023. "Political Budget Cycles in the Context of a Transition Economy: The Case of Albania," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 65(2), pages 221-262, June.
    4. Rui Nuno Baleiras & Vasco Santos, 2003. "On the Likelihood and Welfare Effects of “Stop–and–go” Policies," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 5(1), pages 121-133, January.
    5. Helene Ehrhart, 2013. "Elections and the structure of taxation in developing countries," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 156(1), pages 195-211, July.
    6. Jon Nelson, 2000. "Consumer Bankruptcies and the Bankruptcy Reform Act: A Time-Series Intervention Analysis, 1960–1997," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 17(2), pages 181-200, August.
    7. Vladan Ivanovic & Endrit Lami & Drini Imami, 2023. "Political Budget Cycles in Early Versus Regular Elections: The Case of Serbia," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 65(3), pages 551-581, September.
    8. Ashworth, John & Geys, Benny & Heyndels, Bruno, 2006. "Determinants of tax innovation: The case of environmental taxes in Flemish municipalities," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 223-247, March.
    9. Debapriya Bhattacharya & Shouro Dasgupta & Dwitiya Jawher Neethi, 2012. "Assessing the Impact of the Global Economic and Financial Crisis on Bangladesh: An Intervention Analysis," CPD Working Paper 97, Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD).
    10. Jindapon, Paan & Van Essen, Matt, 2019. "Political business cycles in a dynamic bipartisan voting model," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 15-23.

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