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Are Interventions Self Exciting?

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  • Andreas M. Fischer
  • Mathias Zurlinden

Abstract

The time pattern of official interventions on the foreign exchange market exhibits periods of intense activity followed by long spells of inaction. In this paper, we examine whether the time interval between successive intervention matters for future interventions. To capture the properties of intervention duration an ACD model is used. The data are daily observations of interventions by the Federal Reserve, the Bundesbank and the Swiss National Bank. The evidence finds that the intervention duration is highly persistent and that the hazard is time dependent.

Suggested Citation

  • Andreas M. Fischer & Mathias Zurlinden, 2004. "Are Interventions Self Exciting?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 15(3), pages 223-237, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:openec:v:15:y:2004:i:3:p:223-237
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    Cited by:

    1. Juan J. Dolado & Ramón María‐Dolores, 2002. "Evaluating changes in the Bank of Spain's interest rate target: an alternative approach using marked point processes," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 64(2), pages 159-182, May.
    2. Berhold, Kerstin & Stadtmann, Georg, 2017. "Who put the holes in the Swiss cheese? Currency crisis under appreciation pressure," Discussion Papers 391, European University Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder), Department of Business Administration and Economics.
    3. Vasileios Siakoulis & Ioannis Venetis, 2015. "On inter-arrival times of bond market extreme events. An application to seven European markets," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 39(4), pages 717-741, October.
    4. Florian Ielpo & Dominique Gúegan, 2009. "Understanding the Importance of the Duration and Size of the Variations of Fed’s Target Rate," The IUP Journal of Monetary Economics, IUP Publications, vol. 0(3-4), pages 44-72, August.
    5. Ielpo, Florian & Guégan, Dominique, 2006. "An econometric specification of monetary policy dark art," MPRA Paper 1004, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 07 Oct 2006.
    6. Maria Pacurar, 2008. "Autoregressive Conditional Duration Models In Finance: A Survey Of The Theoretical And Empirical Literature," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(4), pages 711-751, September.
    7. Michel Beine & Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Christelle Lecourt, 1999. "The Impact of Foreign Exchange Interventions: New Evidence from FIGARCH Estimations," Working Papers 1999-14, CEPII research center.
    8. Kim, Suk-Joong & Pham, Cyril Minh Dao, 2006. "Is foreign exchange intervention by central banks bad news for debt markets?: A case of Reserve Bank of Australia's interventions 1986-2003," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 446-467, December.
    9. Siakoulis, Vasilios, 2015. "Modeling bank default intensity in the USA using autoregressive duration models," MPRA Paper 64526, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Dolado, Juan J & Maria-Dolores, Ramon, 2002. "Evaluating Changes in the Bank of Spain's Interest Rate Target: An Alternative Approach Using Marked Point Processes," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 64(2), pages 159-182, May.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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