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Evidence on the Existence of Speculative Bubbles in Farmland Prices

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  • Tegene, Abebayehu
  • Kuchler, Frederick R

Abstract

We conduct tests for the contribution of speculative bubbles to farmland prices. These tests are carried out under the hypothesis that farmland investors rationally form expectations. The outcome of tests reported here allows us to infer whether farmland prices are determined by market fundamentals--discounted returns from the highest economic land use--or whether rumors about farmland price movements are self-fulfilling. The tests are stationarity and cointegration tests relating farmland prices to rents. The tests are carried out using data from three farm production regions--the Corn Belt, the Northern Plains, and the Lake States. In each region, we find little evidence to reject the hypothesis that market fundamentals determine farmland prices. Copyright 1993 by Kluwer Academic Publishers

Suggested Citation

  • Tegene, Abebayehu & Kuchler, Frederick R, 1993. "Evidence on the Existence of Speculative Bubbles in Farmland Prices," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 6(3), pages 223-236, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:jrefec:v:6:y:1993:i:3:p:223-36
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    Cited by:

    1. Benjamin M. Blau & Ryan J. Whitby, 2014. "Speculative Trading In Reits," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 37(1), pages 55-74, February.
    2. Mukesh K. Chaudhry & Rohan A. Christie-David & William H. Sackley, 1999. "Long-Term Structural Price Relationships in Real Estate Markets," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 18(2), pages 335-354.
    3. Hardin, Erin M. & Bryant, Henry L. & Penson, John B., Jr., 2015. "Farmland Prices: The Return of a Bubble and Opportunities for Hedging," 2015 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 26-28, San Francisco, California 205630, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    4. Mateusz Tomal & Agata Gumieniak, 2020. "Agricultural Land Price Convergence: Evidence from Polish Provinces," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-20, May.
    5. Todd Kuethe & Todd Hubbs & Mitch Morehart, 2014. "Farmland returns and economic conditions: a FAVAR approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 47(1), pages 129-142, August.
    6. Abebayehu Tegene & Keith Wiebe & Betsey Kuhn, 1999. "Irreversible Investment Under Uncertainty: Conservation Easements and the Option to Develop Agricultural Land," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(2), pages 203-219, May.
    7. Tom Engsted, 1998. "Do farmland prices reflect rationally expected future rents?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(2), pages 75-79.
    8. Brett Olsen & Jeffrey Stokes, 2015. "Is Farm Real Estate The Next Bubble?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 50(3), pages 355-376, April.

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