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New COVID-related results for estimating the shadow economy in the global economy in 2021 and 2022

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  • Friedrich Schneider

    (Research Institute of Banking and Finance, Johannes Kepler University)

Abstract

Considering the development of the shadow economy of 36 European and OECD countries over the period from 2003 to 2022 and the effect of the Coronavirus pandemic from 2020 onwards, the average size of the shadow economy of 36 European and OECD countries decreased from 16.48% of GDP in 2020 to 16.07% in 2021 (a decline of 0.41 percentage points). Due to a continued (forecasted) economic recovery in 2022, the average shadow economy of these 36 countries will slightly increase to 15.96% of GDP (average of all 36 countries): a very modest reduction of 0.11 percentage points.

Suggested Citation

  • Friedrich Schneider, 2022. "New COVID-related results for estimating the shadow economy in the global economy in 2021 and 2022," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 19(2), pages 299-313, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:iecepo:v:19:y:2022:i:2:d:10.1007_s10368-022-00537-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s10368-022-00537-6
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lars P. Feld & Friedrich Schneider, 2010. "Survey on the Shadow Economy and Undeclared Earnings in OECD Countries," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 11(2), pages 109-149, May.
    2. Piotr Dybka & Michał Kowalczuk & Bartosz Olesiński & Andrzej Torój & Marek Rozkrut, 2019. "Currency demand and MIMIC models: towards a structured hybrid method of measuring the shadow economy," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 26(1), pages 4-40, February.
    3. James Alm & Abel Embaye, 2013. "Using Dynamic Panel Methods to Estimate Shadow Economies Around the World, 1984-2006," Working Papers 1303, Tulane University, Department of Economics.
    4. Mr. Yasser Abdih & Leandro Medina, 2013. "Measuring the Informal Economy in the Caucasus and Central Asia," IMF Working Papers 2013/137, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Lars P. Feld & Friedrich Schneider, 2010. "Survey on the Shadow Economy and Undeclared Earnings in OECD Countries," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 11(2), pages 109-149, May.
    6. Schneider,Friedrich & Enste,Dominik H., 2016. "The Shadow Economy," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781316600894, January.
    7. Friedrich Schneider, 2016. "Comment on Feige's Paper "Reflections on the Meaning and Measurement of Unobserved Economies: What do we really know about the 'Shadow Economy'?"," CESifo Working Paper Series 5818, CESifo.
    8. Leandro Medina & Mr. Friedrich Schneider, 2018. "Shadow Economies Around the World: What Did We Learn Over the Last 20 Years?," IMF Working Papers 2018/017, International Monetary Fund.
    9. James Alm & Abel Embaye, 2013. "Using Dynamic Panel Methods to Estimate Shadow Economies Around the World, 1984–2006," Public Finance Review, , vol. 41(5), pages 510-543, September.
    10. Colin C. Williams & Friedrich Schneider, 2016. "Measuring the Global Shadow Economy," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 16551.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Milosavljević, Miloš & Radovanović, Sandro & Delibašić, Boris, 2023. "What drives the performance of tax administrations? Evidence from selected european countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    2. Aysel Amir & Korhan Gökmenoğlu, 2023. "Analyzing the Drivers of the Shadow Economy for the Case of the CESEE Region," Journal of Economics / Ekonomicky casopis, Institute of Economic Research, Slovak Academy of Sciences, vol. 71(2), pages 155-181, February.
    3. Md. Harun Ur Rashid & Afzal Ahmad & Muhammad Saleh Abdullah & Monir Ahmmed & Serajul Islam, 2022. "Doing Business and Tax Evasion: Evidence from Asian Countries," SAGE Open, , vol. 12(4), pages 21582440221, October.
    4. Bogdan Amzuica & Roxana Adriana Mititelu, 2023. "The underground economy: an exploration of components, size, causes and effects," Technium Social Sciences Journal, Technium Science, vol. 45(1), pages 168-182, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Shadow economy; OECD; Europe; Effect of the Coronavirus pandemic; Latest shadow economy results for 2021 and 2022;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C39 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Other
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C82 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data; Data Access
    • H11 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Structure and Scope of Government
    • H26 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Tax Evasion and Avoidance

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