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The better turbulence index? Forecasting adverse financial markets regimes with persistent homology

Author

Listed:
  • Eduard Baitinger

    (FERI Trust GmbH)

  • Samuel Flegel

    (FERI Trust GmbH)

Abstract

Persistent homology is the workhorse of modern topological data analysis, which in recent years becomes increasingly powerful due to methodological and computing power advances. In this paper, after equipping the reader with the relevant background on persistent homology, we show how this tool can be harnessed for investment purposes. Specifically, we propose a persistent homology-based turbulence index for the detection of adverse market regimes. With the help of an out-of-sample study, we demonstrate that investment strategies relying on a persistent homology-based turbulence detection outperform investment strategies based on other popular turbulence indices. Additionally, we conduct a stability analysis of our findings. This analysis confirms the results from the previous out-of-sample study, as the outperformance prevails for most configurations of the respective investment strategy and thereby mitigating possible data mining concerns.

Suggested Citation

  • Eduard Baitinger & Samuel Flegel, 2021. "The better turbulence index? Forecasting adverse financial markets regimes with persistent homology," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 35(3), pages 277-308, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:fmktpm:v:35:y:2021:i:3:d:10.1007_s11408-020-00377-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s11408-020-00377-x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Rudkin, Simon & Rudkin, Wanling & Dłotko, Paweł, 2023. "On the topology of cryptocurrency markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Persistent homology; Turbulence; Regime shifts; Investment strategy; Topological data analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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