IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/annfin/v18y2022i1d10.1007_s10436-021-00401-8.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Permutation-weighted portfolios and the efficiency of commodity futures markets

Author

Listed:
  • Ricardo T. Fernholz

    (Claremont McKenna College)

  • Robert Fernholz

    (Intech Investment Management, LLC)

Abstract

We study the behavior of permutation-weighted portfolios, portfolios with weights that are proportional to a permutation of the current market weights. For markets with more than two assets, these portfolios are not functionally generated (except for the identity permutation), so we use rank-based methods to analyze their behavior. The reverse-wighted portfolio is the permutation-weighted portfolio with weights proportional to the market weights, but reversed by rank. We show that in a market represented by a first-order model with rank-symmetric variance parameters, the reverse-weighted portfolio will outperform the market portfolio over the long term. This result carries over to a commodity futures market with rank-based parameters similar to those of such a first-order model. In this market we find that the reverse-weighted portfolio outperforms the price-weighted market portfolio from 1977–2018.

Suggested Citation

  • Ricardo T. Fernholz & Robert Fernholz, 2022. "Permutation-weighted portfolios and the efficiency of commodity futures markets," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 81-108, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:annfin:v:18:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1007_s10436-021-00401-8
    DOI: 10.1007/s10436-021-00401-8
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10436-021-00401-8
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10436-021-00401-8?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alexander Vervuurt & Ioannis Karatzas, 2015. "Diversity-Weighted Portfolios with Negative Parameter," Papers 1504.01026, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2015.
    2. Karatzas, Ioannis & Ruf, Johannes, 2017. "Trading strategies generated by Lyapunov functions," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 69177, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    3. Banner, Adrian D. & Ghomrasni, Raouf, 2008. "Local times of ranked continuous semimartingales," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 118(7), pages 1244-1253, July.
    4. Fernholz, E. Robert & Karatzas, Ioannis & Ruf, Johannes, 2018. "Volatility and arbitrage," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 75234, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    5. Tomoyuki Ichiba & Vassilios Papathanakos & Adrian Banner & Ioannis Karatzas & Robert Fernholz, 2009. "Hybrid Atlas models," Papers 0909.0065, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2011.
    6. Robert Fernholz, 1999. "Portfolio Generating Functions," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Marco Avellaneda (ed.), Quantitative Analysis In Financial Markets Collected Papers of the New York University Mathematical Finance Seminar, chapter 15, pages 344-367, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    7. Robert Fernholz, 2016. "A new decomposition of portfolio return," Papers 1606.05877, arXiv.org.
    8. Clifford S. Asness & Tobias J. Moskowitz & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2013. "Value and Momentum Everywhere," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(3), pages 929-985, June.
    9. Ioannis Karatzas & Johannes Ruf, 2017. "Trading strategies generated by Lyapunov functions," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 21(3), pages 753-787, July.
    10. Alexander Vervuurt & Ioannis Karatzas, 2015. "Diversity-weighted portfolios with negative parameter," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 11(3), pages 411-432, November.
    11. Ricardo T. Fernholz, 2017. "Nonparametric methods and local†time†based estimation for dynamic power law distributions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(7), pages 1244-1260, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ricardo T. Fernholz & Robert Fernholz, 2020. "Permutation-Weighted Portfolios and the Efficiency of Commodity Futures Markets," Papers 2001.06914, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2020.
    2. Donghan Kim, 2022. "Market-to-book Ratio in Stochastic Portfolio Theory," Papers 2206.03742, arXiv.org.
    3. Ricardo T. Fernholz & Caleb Stroup, 2018. "Asset Price Distributions and Efficient Markets," Papers 1810.12840, arXiv.org.
    4. Donghan Kim, 2019. "Open Markets," Papers 1912.13110, arXiv.org.
    5. Ioannis Karatzas & Donghan Kim, 2021. "Open markets," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(4), pages 1111-1161, October.
    6. Donghan Kim, 2023. "Market-to-book ratio in stochastic portfolio theory," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 401-434, April.
    7. Ioannis Karatzas & Johannes Ruf, 2017. "Trading strategies generated by Lyapunov functions," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 21(3), pages 753-787, July.
    8. Johannes Ruf & Kangjianan Xie, 2018. "Generalised Lyapunov Functions and Functionally Generated Trading Strategies," Papers 1801.07817, arXiv.org.
    9. Ting-Kam Leonard Wong, 2017. "On portfolios generated by optimal transport," Papers 1709.03169, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2017.
    10. Ioannis Karatzas & Johannes Ruf, 2016. "Trading Strategies Generated by Lyapunov Functions," Papers 1603.08245, arXiv.org.
    11. Ricardo T. Fernholz & Christoffer Koch, 2018. "The Rank Effect," Papers 1812.06000, arXiv.org.
    12. Ruf, Johannes & Xie, Kangjianan, 2019. "Generalised Lyapunov functions and functionally generated trading strategies," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 102424, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    13. Patrick Mijatovic, 2021. "Beating the Market with Generalized Generating Portfolios," Papers 2101.07084, arXiv.org.
    14. Cuchiero, Christa, 2019. "Polynomial processes in stochastic portfolio theory," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 129(5), pages 1829-1872.
    15. Ioannis Karatzas & Donghan Kim, 2018. "Trading Strategies Generated Pathwise by Functions of Market Weights," Papers 1809.10123, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2019.
    16. David Itkin & Martin Larsson, 2021. "Open Markets and Hybrid Jacobi Processes," Papers 2110.14046, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2024.
    17. Kangjianan Xie, 2020. "Leakage of rank-dependent functionally generated trading strategies," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 16(4), pages 573-591, December.
    18. Ioannis Karatzas & Donghan Kim, 2020. "Trading strategies generated pathwise by functions of market weights," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 423-463, April.
    19. Erhan Bayraktar & Donghan Kim & Abhishek Tilva, 2023. "Quantifying dimensional change in stochastic portfolio theory," Papers 2303.00858, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2023.
    20. Martin Larsson & Johannes Ruf, 2021. "Relative arbitrage: Sharp time horizons and motion by curvature," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(3), pages 885-906, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Stochastic portfolio theory; Functionally generated portfolios; Market efficiency; Swap portfolios; Reverse-weighted portfolios; Permutation-weighted portfolios; First-order model; Commodity futures;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:annfin:v:18:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1007_s10436-021-00401-8. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.