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Forecasting regional house price inflation: a comparison between dynamic factor models and vector autoregressive models

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  • Sonali Das
  • Rangan Gupta
  • Alain Kabundi

Abstract

This paper uses the dynamic factor model framework, which accommodates a large cross-section of macroeconomic time series, for forecasting regional house price inflation. In this study, we forecast house price inflation for five metropolitan areas of South Africa using principal components obtained from 282 quarterly macroeconomic time series in the period 1980:1 to 2006:4. The results, based on the root mean square errors of one to four quarters ahead out‐of‐sample forecasts over the period 2001:1 to 2006:4 indicate that, in the majority of the cases, the Dynamic Factor Model statistically outperforms the vector autoregressive models, using both the classical and the Bayesian treatments. We also consider spatial and non‐spatial specifications. Our results indicate that macroeconomic fundamentals in forecasting house price inflation are important. Copyright (C) 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Sonali Das & Rangan Gupta & Alain Kabundi, 2011. "Forecasting regional house price inflation: a comparison between dynamic factor models and vector autoregressive models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(2), pages 288-302, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:jof:jforec:v:30:y:2011:i:2:p:288-302
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1002/for.1182
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Zietz, Joachim & Traian, Anca, 2014. "When was the U.S. housing downturn predictable? A comparison of univariate forecasting methods," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 271-281.
    2. Plakandaras, Vasilios & Gupta, Rangan & Gogas, Periklis & Papadimitriou, Theophilos, 2015. "Forecasting the U.S. real house price index," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 259-267.
    3. Mirriam Chitalu Chama-Chiliba & Rangan Gupta & Nonophile Nkambule & Naomi Tlotlego, 2011. "Forecasting Key Macroeconomic Variables of the South African Economy Using Bayesian Variable Selection," Working Papers 201132, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    4. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-585 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-473 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Kishor, N. Kundan, 2023. "Forecasting House Prices: The Role of Fundamentals, Credit Conditions, and Supply Indicators," MPRA Paper 116819, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Gupta, Rangan & Kabundi, Alain & Miller, Stephen M., 2011. "Forecasting the US real house price index: Structural and non-structural models with and without fundamentals," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 2013-2021, July.
    8. Laurynas Narusevicius & Tomas Ramanauskas & Laura Gudauskaitė & Tomas Reichenbachas, 2019. "Lithuanian house price index: modelling and forecasting," Bank of Lithuania Occasional Paper Series 28, Bank of Lithuania.
    9. Kyle E. Binder & Mohsen Pourahmadi & James W. Mjelde, 2020. "The role of temporal dependence in factor selection and forecasting oil prices," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(3), pages 1185-1223, March.
    10. Kuo, Chen-Yin, 2016. "Does the vector error correction model perform better than others in forecasting stock price? An application of residual income valuation theory," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 772-789.
    11. Chen-Yin Kuo, 2017. "Is the accuracy of stock value forecasting relevant to industry factors or firm-specific factors? An empirical study of the Ohlson model," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 49(1), pages 195-225, July.
    12. Rangan Gupta, 2012. "Forecasting House Prices for the Four Census Regions and the Aggregate US Economy: The Role of a Data-Rich Environment," Working Papers 201214, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    13. Ercio Muñoz & Pablo Cruz, 2012. "Uso de un Modelo Favar para Proyectar el Precio del Cobre," Notas de Investigación Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 15(3), pages 84-95, December.

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