IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/inm/oropre/v64y2016i2p315-328.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

When Is Information Sufficient for Action? Search with Unreliable yet Informative Intelligence

Author

Listed:
  • Michael Atkinson

    (Operations Research Department, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California 93943)

  • Moshe Kress

    (Operations Research Department, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California 93943)

  • Rutger-Jan Lange

    (Department of Finance, VU University Amsterdam, 1081 HV Amsterdam, The Netherlands; and Erasmus School of Economics, Erasmus University Rotterdam, 3062 PA Rotterdam, The Netherlands)

Abstract

We analyze a variant of the whereabouts search problem, in which a searcher looks for a target hiding in one of n possible locations. Unlike in the classic version, our searcher does not pursue the target by actively moving from one location to the next. Instead, the searcher receives a stream of intelligence about the location of the target. At any time, the searcher can engage the location he thinks contains the target or wait for more intelligence. The searcher incurs costs when he engages the wrong location, based on insufficient intelligence, or waits too long in the hopes of gaining better situational awareness, which allows the target to either execute his plot or disappear. We formulate the searcher’s decision as an optimal stopping problem and establish conditions for optimally executing this search-and-interdict mission.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Atkinson & Moshe Kress & Rutger-Jan Lange, 2016. "When Is Information Sufficient for Action? Search with Unreliable yet Informative Intelligence," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 64(2), pages 315-328, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:oropre:v:64:y:2016:i:2:p:315-328
    DOI: 10.1287/opre.2016.1488
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/opre.2016.1488
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1287/opre.2016.1488?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Joseph B. Kadane, 1971. "Optimal Whereabouts Search," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 19(4), pages 894-904, August.
    2. Moshe Kress & Kyle Lin & Roberto Szechtman, 2008. "Optimal discrete search with imperfect specificity," Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research (GOR);Nederlands Genootschap voor Besliskunde (NGB), vol. 68(3), pages 539-549, December.
    3. Alan Washburn, 2014. "Two-Person Zero-Sum Games," International Series in Operations Research and Management Science, Springer, edition 4, number 978-1-4614-9050-0, September.
    4. Roberto Szechtman & Moshe Kress & Kyle Lin & Dolev Cfir, 2008. "Models of sensor operations for border surveillance," Naval Research Logistics (NRL), John Wiley & Sons, vol. 55(1), pages 27-41, February.
    5. Pinyuen Chen, 1988. "An integrated formulation for selecting the most probable multinomial cell," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 40(3), pages 615-625, September.
    6. Wilson, Kurt E. & Szechtman, Roberto & Atkinson, Michael P., 2011. "A sequential perspective on searching for static targets," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 215(1), pages 218-226, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Baycik, N. Orkun & Sharkey, Thomas C. & Rainwater, Chase E., 2020. "A Markov Decision Process approach for balancing intelligence and interdiction operations in city-level drug trafficking enforcement," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    2. Ben Hermans & Herbert Hamers & Roel Leus & Roy Lindelauf, 2019. "Timely exposure of a secret project: Which activities to monitor?," Naval Research Logistics (NRL), John Wiley & Sons, vol. 66(6), pages 451-468, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Baycik, N. Orkun & Sharkey, Thomas C. & Rainwater, Chase E., 2020. "A Markov Decision Process approach for balancing intelligence and interdiction operations in city-level drug trafficking enforcement," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    2. Joseph B. Kadane, 2015. "Optimal discrete search with technological choice," Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research (GOR);Nederlands Genootschap voor Besliskunde (NGB), vol. 81(3), pages 317-336, June.
    3. Joseph Kadane, 2015. "Optimal discrete search with technological choice," Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research (GOR);Nederlands Genootschap voor Besliskunde (NGB), vol. 81(3), pages 317-336, June.
    4. Jake Clarkson & Kevin D. Glazebrook & Kyle Y. Lin, 2020. "Fast or Slow: Search in Discrete Locations with Two Search Modes," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 68(2), pages 552-571, March.
    5. Garrec, Tristan, 2019. "Continuous patrolling and hiding games," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 277(1), pages 42-51.
    6. Fang Lu & John J. Hasenbein & David P. Morton, 2016. "Modeling and Optimization of a Spatial Detection System," INFORMS Journal on Computing, INFORMS, vol. 28(3), pages 512-526, August.
    7. Steven M. Shechter & Farhad Ghassemi & Yasin Gocgun & Martin L. Puterman, 2015. "Technical Note—Trading Off Quick versus Slow Actions in Optimal Search," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 63(2), pages 353-362, April.
    8. Sushil Gupta & Martin K. Starr & Reza Zanjirani Farahani & Mahsa Mahboob Ghodsi, 2020. "Prevention of Terrorism–An Assessment of Prior POM Work and Future Potentials," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 29(7), pages 1789-1815, July.
    9. Stanley J. Benkoski & Michael G. Monticino & James R. Weisinger, 1991. "A survey of the search theory literature," Naval Research Logistics (NRL), John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(4), pages 469-494, August.
    10. Leopold Aspect & Christian Ewerhart, 2022. "Finite approximations of the Sion-Wolfe game," ECON - Working Papers 417, Department of Economics - University of Zurich, revised Aug 2023.
    11. T. C. E. Cheng & B. Kriheli & E. Levner & C. T. Ng, 2021. "Scheduling an autonomous robot searching for hidden targets," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 298(1), pages 95-109, March.
    12. Ben Hermans & Herbert Hamers & Roel Leus & Roy Lindelauf, 2019. "Timely exposure of a secret project: Which activities to monitor?," Naval Research Logistics (NRL), John Wiley & Sons, vol. 66(6), pages 451-468, September.
    13. Kress, M. & Royset, J.O. & Rozen, N., 2012. "The eye and the fist: Optimizing search and interdiction," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 220(2), pages 550-558.
    14. Katerina Papadaki & Steve Alpern & Thomas Lidbetter & Alec Morton, 2016. "Patrolling a Border," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 64(6), pages 1256-1269, December.
    15. Yan Xia & Rajan Batta & Rakesh Nagi, 2017. "Controlling a Fleet of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles to Collect Uncertain Information in a Threat Environment," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 65(3), pages 674-692, June.
    16. Grant, James A. & Leslie, David S. & Glazebrook, Kevin & Szechtman, Roberto & Letchford, Adam N., 2020. "Adaptive policies for perimeter surveillance problems," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 283(1), pages 265-278.
    17. Chhabra, Meenal & Das, Sanmay & Sarne, David, 2014. "Expert-mediated sequential search," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 234(3), pages 861-873.
    18. Wilson, Kurt E. & Szechtman, Roberto & Atkinson, Michael P., 2011. "A sequential perspective on searching for static targets," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 215(1), pages 218-226, November.
    19. Alpern, Steve & Lidbetter, Thomas & Papadaki, Katerina, 2019. "Optimizing periodic patrols against short attacks on the line and other networks," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 273(3), pages 1065-1073.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:inm:oropre:v:64:y:2016:i:2:p:315-328. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Asher (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/inforea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.