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Six (Or So) Things You Can Do with a Bad Model

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  • James S. Hodges

    (RAND, Santa Monica, California)

Abstract

Many models used in policy or systems analysis either cannot be validated in any fully adequate sense, such as by comparing them with actual data, or could adequately be validated but have not been. For example, in the area of combat analysis, the central models are arguably almost entirely unvalidated and most will never be susceptible to adequate validation. Nevertheless, such models are often used and can be used fruitfully, even though we have no theory for how to use them or how to interpret and place value on the results they produce. This paper takes a step toward providing such a theory by focusing on the logic that should govern the use of inadequately validated models and the costs and benefits of using them. To this end, it identifies and evaluates six legitimate uses to which such models can be put.

Suggested Citation

  • James S. Hodges, 1991. "Six (Or So) Things You Can Do with a Bad Model," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 39(3), pages 355-365, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:oropre:v:39:y:1991:i:3:p:355-365
    DOI: 10.1287/opre.39.3.355
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    Cited by:

    1. Kleijnen, Jack P. C., 1995. "Verification and validation of simulation models," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 82(1), pages 145-162, April.
    2. Jan Kwakkel & Gönenç Yücel, 2014. "An Exploratory Analysis of the Dutch Electricity System in Transition," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 5(4), pages 670-685, December.
    3. Sibel Eker, 2020. "Validity and usefulness of COVID-19 models," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 7(1), pages 1-5, December.
    4. Lane, David & Husemann, Elke & Holland, Darren & Khaled, Abdul, 2019. "Understanding foodborne transmission mechanisms for Norovirus: A study for the UK's Food Standards Agency," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 275(2), pages 721-736.
    5. Du, Lei & Goerlandt, Floris & Kujala, Pentti, 2020. "Review and analysis of methods for assessing maritime waterway risk based on non-accident critical events detected from AIS data," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    6. Warren E. Walker & Marjolijn Haasnoot & Jan H. Kwakkel, 2013. "Adapt or Perish: A Review of Planning Approaches for Adaptation under Deep Uncertainty," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 5(3), pages 1-25, March.
    7. Augusiak, Jacqueline & Van den Brink, Paul J. & Grimm, Volker, 2014. "Merging validation and evaluation of ecological models to ‘evaludation’: A review of terminology and a practical approach," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 280(C), pages 117-128.
    8. Walker, Warren E., 2009. "Does the best practice of rational-style model-based policy analysis already include ethical considerations?," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 1051-1062, December.
    9. Brian L. Morgan & Harrison C. Schramm & Jerry R. Smith, Jr. & Thomas W. Lucas & Mary L. McDonald & Paul J. Sánchez & Susan M. Sanchez & Stephen C. Upton, 2018. "Improving U.S. Navy Campaign Analyses with Big Data," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 48(2), pages 130-146, April.
    10. Moallemi, Enayat A. & Elsawah, Sondoss & Ryan, Michael J., 2020. "Strengthening ‘good’ modelling practices in robust decision support: A reporting guideline for combining multiple model-based methods," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 3-24.
    11. Moallemi, Enayat A. & Elsawah, Sondoss & Ryan, Michael J., 2020. "Robust decision making and Epoch–Era analysis: A comparison of two robustness frameworks for decision-making under uncertainty," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    12. C Marijn Hazelbag & Jonathan Dushoff & Emanuel M Dominic & Zinhle E Mthombothi & Wim Delva, 2020. "Calibration of individual-based models to epidemiological data: A systematic review," PLOS Computational Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(5), pages 1-17, May.
    13. Frederic H. Murphy, 2005. "ASP, The Art and Science of Practice: Elements of a Theory of the Practice of Operations Research: Expertise in Practice," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 35(4), pages 313-322, August.
    14. Claralucia Prates Machado & Maria Isabel Wolf Morandi & Miguel Sellitto, 2019. "System Dynamics and Learning Scenarios for Process Improvement and Regional Resilience: A Study in The Footwear Industry of Southern Brazil," Systemic Practice and Action Research, Springer, vol. 32(6), pages 663-686, December.
    15. Jack P. C. Kleijnen & Susan M. Sanchez & Thomas W. Lucas & Thomas M. Cioppa, 2005. "State-of-the-Art Review: A User’s Guide to the Brave New World of Designing Simulation Experiments," INFORMS Journal on Computing, INFORMS, vol. 17(3), pages 263-289, August.
    16. S Robinson, 2008. "Conceptual modelling for simulation Part I: definition and requirements," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 59(3), pages 278-290, March.
    17. Kleijnen, J. P. C., 2001. "Ethical issues in modeling: Some reflections," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 130(1), pages 223-230, April.
    18. Jan Kwakkel & Willem Auping, 2021. "Reaction: A commentary on Lustick and Tetlock (2021)," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 3(2), June.
    19. Michael Pidd, 1999. "Just Modeling Through: A Rough Guide to Modeling," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 29(2), pages 118-132, April.
    20. S Robinson, 2008. "Conceptual modelling for simulation Part II: a framework for conceptual modelling," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 59(3), pages 291-304, March.
    21. Goerlandt, Floris & Islam, Samsul, 2021. "A Bayesian Network risk model for estimating coastal maritime transportation delays following an earthquake in British Columbia," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).
    22. Harper, Alison & Mustafee, Navonil & Yearworth, Mike, 2021. "Facets of trust in simulation studies," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 289(1), pages 197-213.
    23. Zhang, Weibin & Feng, Xinyu & Goerlandt, Floris & Liu, Qing, 2020. "Towards a Convolutional Neural Network model for classifying regional ship collision risk levels for waterway risk analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    24. Marjolijn Haasnoot & Hans Middelkoop & Astrid Offermans & Eelco Beek & Willem Deursen, 2012. "Exploring pathways for sustainable water management in river deltas in a changing environment," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 115(3), pages 795-819, December.
    25. T R Willemain & W A Wallace & K R Fleischmann & L B Waisel & S N Ganaway, 2003. "Bad numbers: coping with flawed decision support," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 54(9), pages 949-957, September.

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