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Efficient Risk Estimation via Nested Sequential Simulation

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Author Info

  • Mark Broadie

    () (Graduate School of Business, Columbia University, New York, New York 10027)

  • Yiping Du

    () (Industrial Engineering and Operations Research, Columbia University, New York, New York 10027)

  • Ciamac C. Moallemi

    () (Graduate School of Business, Columbia University, New York, New York 10027)

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    Abstract

    We analyze the computational problem of estimating financial risk in a nested simulation. In this approach, an outer simulation is used to generate financial scenarios, and an inner simulation is used to estimate future portfolio values in each scenario. We focus on one risk measure, the probability of a large loss, and we propose a new algorithm to estimate this risk. Our algorithm sequentially allocates computational effort in the inner simulation based on marginal changes in the risk estimator in each scenario. Theoretical results are given to show that the risk estimator has a faster convergence order compared to the conventional uniform inner sampling approach. Numerical results consistent with the theory are presented. This paper was accepted by Gérard Cachon, stochastic models and simulation.

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    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.1110.1330
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by INFORMS in its journal Management Science.

    Volume (Year): 57 (2011)
    Issue (Month): 6 (June)
    Pages: 1172-1194

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    Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:57:y:2011:i:6:p:1172-1194

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    Related research

    Keywords: simulation; decision analysis; risk; risk management; sequential analysis;

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