Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Efficient Risk Estimation via Nested Sequential Simulation

Contents:

Author Info

  • Mark Broadie

    ()
    (Graduate School of Business, Columbia University, New York, New York 10027)

  • Yiping Du

    ()
    (Industrial Engineering and Operations Research, Columbia University, New York, New York 10027)

  • Ciamac C. Moallemi

    ()
    (Graduate School of Business, Columbia University, New York, New York 10027)

Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    We analyze the computational problem of estimating financial risk in a nested simulation. In this approach, an outer simulation is used to generate financial scenarios, and an inner simulation is used to estimate future portfolio values in each scenario. We focus on one risk measure, the probability of a large loss, and we propose a new algorithm to estimate this risk. Our algorithm sequentially allocates computational effort in the inner simulation based on marginal changes in the risk estimator in each scenario. Theoretical results are given to show that the risk estimator has a faster convergence order compared to the conventional uniform inner sampling approach. Numerical results consistent with the theory are presented. This paper was accepted by Gérard Cachon, stochastic models and simulation.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.1110.1330
    Download Restriction: no

    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by INFORMS in its journal Management Science.

    Volume (Year): 57 (2011)
    Issue (Month): 6 (June)
    Pages: 1172-1194

    as in new window
    Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:57:y:2011:i:6:p:1172-1194

    Contact details of provider:
    Postal: 7240 Parkway Drive, Suite 300, Hanover, MD 21076 USA
    Phone: +1-443-757-3500
    Fax: 443-757-3515
    Email:
    Web page: http://www.informs.org/
    More information through EDIRC

    Related research

    Keywords: simulation; decision analysis; risk; risk management; sequential analysis;

    References

    No references listed on IDEAS
    You can help add them by filling out this form.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as in new window

    Cited by:
    1. Julien Vedani & Fabien Ramaharobandro, 2013. "Continuous compliance: a proxy-based monitoring framework," Working Papers hal-00866531, HAL.
    2. Julien Vedani & Fabien Ramaharobandro, 2013. "Continuous compliance: a proxy-based monitoring framework," Papers 1309.7222, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2013.
    3. Fabian Dickmann & Nikolaus Schweizer, 2014. "Faster Comparison of Stopping Times by Nested Conditional Monte Carlo," Papers 1402.0243, arXiv.org.
    4. Colletaz, Gilbert & Hurlin, Christophe & Pérignon, Christophe, 2013. "The Risk Map: A new tool for validating risk models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(10), pages 3843-3854.

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:57:y:2011:i:6:p:1172-1194. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Mirko Janc).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.