IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/inm/ormnsc/v28y1982i10p1137-1148.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Multiplicative Formula for Aggregating Probability Assessments

Author

Listed:
  • Robert F. Bordley

    (General Motors Research Labs, Warren, Michigan)

Abstract

This paper presents an axiomatic approach to the problem of aggregating expert assessments of an event's probability into some group probability assessment. A multiplicative formula is derived.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert F. Bordley, 1982. "A Multiplicative Formula for Aggregating Probability Assessments," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 28(10), pages 1137-1148, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:28:y:1982:i:10:p:1137-1148
    DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.28.10.1137
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.28.10.1137
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1287/mnsc.28.10.1137?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mingyang Wang & Guang Yu & Daren Yu, 2011. "Mining typical features for highly cited papers," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 87(3), pages 695-706, June.
    2. Levy, Gilat & Moreno de Barreda, Inés & Razin, Ronny, 2022. "Persuasion with correlation neglect: a full manipulation result," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 111551, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    3. Dietrich, Franz, 2021. "Fully Bayesian aggregation," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
    4. Satopää, Ville A. & Baron, Jonathan & Foster, Dean P. & Mellers, Barbara A. & Tetlock, Philip E. & Ungar, Lyle H., 2014. "Combining multiple probability predictions using a simple logit model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 344-356.
    5. Jared A. Beekman & Ronald F. A. Woodaman & Dennis M. Buede, 2020. "A Review of Probabilistic Opinion Pooling Algorithms with Application to Insider Threat Detection," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 17(1), pages 39-55, March.
    6. Ruth Ben-Yashar & Leif Danziger, 2015. "When is voting optimal?," Economic Theory Bulletin, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 3(2), pages 341-356, October.
    7. David V. Budescu & Hsiu-Ting Yu, 2006. "To Bayes or Not to Bayes? A Comparison of Two Classes of Models of Information Aggregation," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 3(3), pages 145-162, September.
    8. Tianjiao Wang & Yelin Fu, 2020. "Constructing Composite Indicators with Individual Judgements and Best–Worst Method: An Illustration of Value Measure," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 149(1), pages 1-14, May.
    9. Nicolas Roux & Joel Sobel, 2015. "Group Polarization in a Model of Information Aggregation," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(4), pages 202-232, November.
    10. Stephen C. Hora, 2013. "A Note on the Aggregation of Event Probabilities," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(5), pages 909-914, May.
    11. Yakov Babichenko & Dan Garber, 2021. "Learning Optimal Forecast Aggregation in Partial Evidence Environments," Mathematics of Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 46(2), pages 628-641, May.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:28:y:1982:i:10:p:1137-1148. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Asher (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/inforea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.