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Forecasting and Scheduling for Past-Model Replacement Parts

Author

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  • John R. Moore, Jr.

    (Stanford University)

Abstract

All-time requirements forecasting and the translation of these forecasts, via a dynamic inventory model, into production schedules are effective tools for controlling manufacturing, inventory and obsolescence costs of past-model replacement parts. Traditional forecasting rules and steady-state EOQ models prove inappropriate for the special problems posed by the demand decay characteristics of all service parts. A new forecasting technique, based on the principle of estimating sales requirements for all-time into the future, is described along with a dynamic inventory model for ordering production runs. Together, these techniques--developed for implementation by an American auto manufacture--provide results superior to those of other, more traditional, procedures. An inventory review system for achieving model implementation is also discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • John R. Moore, Jr., 1971. "Forecasting and Scheduling for Past-Model Replacement Parts," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 18(4-Part-I), pages 200-213, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:18:y:1971:i:4-part-i:p:b200-b213
    DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.18.4.B200
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    Cited by:

    1. Pourakbar, M. & Frenk, J.B.G. & Dekker, R., 2010. "End-of-Life Inventory Decisions for Consumer Electronics Service Parts," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2009-48, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    2. Hur, Mansik & Keskin, Burcu B. & Schmidt, Charles P., 2018. "End-of-life inventory control of aircraft spare parts under performance based logistics," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 204(C), pages 186-203.
    3. Teunter, Ruud H. & Fortuin, Leonard, 1999. "End-of-life service," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1-3), pages 487-497, March.
    4. Dekker, Rommert & Pinçe, Çerağ & Zuidwijk, Rob & Jalil, Muhammad Naiman, 2013. "On the use of installed base information for spare parts logistics: A review of ideas and industry practice," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(2), pages 536-545.
    5. Pourakbar, Morteza & Dekker, Rommert, 2012. "Customer differentiated end-of-life inventory problem," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 222(1), pages 44-53.
    6. Behfard, S. & Al Hanbali, A. & van der Heijden, M.C. & Zijm, W.H.M., 2018. "Last Time Buy and repair decisions for fast moving parts," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 197(C), pages 158-173.
    7. Behfard, S. & van der Heijden, M.C. & Al Hanbali, A. & Zijm, W.H.M., 2015. "Last time buy and repair decisions for spare parts," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 244(2), pages 498-510.
    8. M. Pourakbar & E. Laan & R. Dekker, 2014. "End-of-Life Inventory Problem with Phaseout Returns," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 23(9), pages 1561-1576, September.
    9. J. B. G. Frenk & Canan Pehlivan & Semih O. Sezer, 2019. "Order and exit decisions under non-increasing price curves for products with short life cycles," Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research (GOR);Nederlands Genootschap voor Besliskunde (NGB), vol. 90(3), pages 365-397, December.
    10. van Jaarsveld, Willem & Dekker, Rommert, 2011. "Estimating obsolescence risk from demand data to enhance inventory control--A case study," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(1), pages 423-431, September.
    11. van der Heijden, Matthieu & Iskandar, Bermawi P., 2013. "Last time buy decisions for products sold under warranty," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 224(2), pages 302-312.
    12. J. B. G. Frenk & Sonya Javadi & Semih O. Sezer, 2019. "An optimal stopping approach for the end-of-life inventory problem," Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research (GOR);Nederlands Genootschap voor Besliskunde (NGB), vol. 90(3), pages 329-363, December.
    13. J P J van Kooten & T Tan, 2009. "The final order problem for repairable spare parts under condemnation," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 60(10), pages 1449-1461, October.

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