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Modeling Multinational Diffusion Patterns: An Efficient Methodology

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Author Info

  • Hubert Gatignon

    (The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania)

  • Jehoshua Eliashberg

    (The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania)

  • Thomas S. Robertson

    (The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania)

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    Abstract

    The objective of this study is to develop an econometric model for the diffusion of innovations at the individual country level, but which also allows the parameters of the process to differ systematically across countries. The conceptualization rests on behavioral and spatial theories of diffusion and extends the domain to international markets. The cross-national model of innovation diffusion which is developed highlights substantive differences and similarities among international markets. It also provides estimates for the diffusion parameters, even for countries where sales data are not available, thereby yielding some insights into the nature of the expected diffusion pattern in these countries prior to market entry.

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    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mksc.8.3.231
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by INFORMS in its journal Marketing Science.

    Volume (Year): 8 (1989)
    Issue (Month): 3 ()
    Pages: 231-247

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    Handle: RePEc:inm:ormksc:v:8:y:1989:i:3:p:231-247

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    Web page: http://www.informs.org/
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    Related research

    Keywords: estimation; statistical techniques; international marketing; new products;

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    Cited by:
    1. de Bondt, Gabe & Marqués-Ibáñez, David, 2004. "The high-yield segment of the corporate bond market: a diffusion modelling approach for the United States, the United Kingdom and the euro area," Working Paper Series 0313, European Central Bank.
    2. Islam, Towhidul & Fiebig, Denzil G. & Meade, Nigel, 2002. "Modelling multinational telecommunications demand with limited data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 605-624.
    3. Gabe Bondt & David Ibáñez, 2005. "High-Yield Bond Diffusion in the United States, the United Kingdom, and the Euro Area," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 163-181, April.
    4. Urban, Glen L. & Weinberg, Bruce D. & Hauser, John R., 1994. "Premarket forecasting of really new products," Working papers 3689-94., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
    5. Emmanouilides, Christos J. & Davies, Richard B., 2007. "Modelling and estimation of social interaction effects in new product diffusion," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 177(2), pages 1253-1274, March.
    6. Riefler, Petra & Diamantopoulos, Adamantios, 2009. "Consumer cosmopolitanism: Review and replication of the CYMYC scale," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 62(4), pages 407-419, April.
    7. Rao, K. Usha & Kishore, V.V.N., 2010. "A review of technology diffusion models with special reference to renewable energy technologies," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 1070-1078, April.
    8. Frambach, Ruud T. & Herk, Hester van & Agarwal, Manoj K., 2003. "Culture's influence on innovation adoption : A global study of manager's adoption intention of telecom innovations," Serie Research Memoranda 0014, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
    9. Towhidul Islam & Nigel Meade, 2011. "Detecting the impact of market factors on sales takeoff times of analog cellular telephones," Marketing Letters, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 197-212, June.
    10. van Everdingen, Y.M. & Wierenga, B., 2001. "Intra-Firm Adoption Decisions," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2001-21-MKT, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus Uni.
    11. Peters, Kay & Albers, Sönke & Kumar, V., 2008. "Is there more to international Diffusion than Culture? An investigation on the Role of Marketing and Industry Variables," EconStor Preprints 27678, ZBW - German National Library of Economics.
    12. Birgelen, M. van & Ruyter, K. de & Jong, de A. & Wetzels, M., 2001. "Customer evaluations of after-sales service contact modes: An empirical analysis of national culture�s consequences," Eindhoven Center for Innovation Studies (ECIS) working paper series 01.17, Eindhoven Center for Innovation Studies (ECIS).
    13. Beise, Marian & Cleff, Thomas, 2004. "Assessing the lead market potential of countries for innovation projects," Journal of International Management, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 453-477.
    14. Lee, Minkyu & Heshmati, Almas, 2006. "A Dynamic Flexible Partial-Adjustment Model of International Diffusion of the Internet," Ratio Working Papers 99, The Ratio Institute.
    15. van Everdingen, Y.M. & Fok, D. & Stremersch, S., 2008. "Modeling Global Spill-Over of New Product Takeoff," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2008-067-MKT, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus Uni.
    16. Laciana, Carlos E. & Rovere, Santiago L. & Podestá, Guillermo P., 2013. "Exploring associations between micro-level models of innovation diffusion and emerging macro-level adoption patterns," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(8), pages 1873-1884.
    17. Donald Lehmann & Mercedes Esteban-Bravo, 2006. "When giving some away makes sense to jump-start the diffusion process," Marketing Letters, Springer, vol. 17(4), pages 243-254, December.
    18. van den Bulte, C. & Stremersch, S., 2003. "Contagion and heterogeneity in new product diffusion: An emperical test," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2003-077-MKT, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus Uni.
    19. Cleeren, K. & Dekimpe, M.G. & Verboven, F., 2005. "Intra- and Inter-Channel Competition in Local-Service Sectors," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2005-018-MKT, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus Uni.
    20. Mooradian, Todd A. & Swan, K. Scott, 2006. "Personality-and-culture: The case of national extraversion and word-of-mouth," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 59(6), pages 778-785, June.
    21. Stremersch, S. & Lemmens, A., 2008. "Sales Growth of New Pharmaceuticals Across the Globe: The Role of Regulatory Regimes," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2008-026-MKT, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus Uni.
    22. Birgelen, M. van & Ruyter, K. de & Jong, de A. & Wetzels, M., 2001. "Customer evaluations of after-sales service contact modes: An empirical analysis of national culture�s consequences," Working Papers 01.17, Eindhoven Center for Innovation Studies.

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