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Responding to Bioterrorist Smallpox in San Antonio

Author

Listed:
  • George Miller

    (Altarum Institute, PO Box 134001, Ann Arbor, Michigan 48113-4001)

  • Stephen Randolph

    (Altarum Institute, 3737 Broadway, Suite 205, San Antonio, Texas 78209)

  • Jan E. Patterson

    (University of Texas Health Science Center at San Antonio and South Texas Veterans Health Care System, 7400 Merton Minter Street, San Antonio, Texas 78229)

Abstract

We used discrete-event simulation to help the San Antonio public health and acute medical care communities to plan their response to a bioterrorist attack. The analysis, based on a scenario positing an attack with aerosolized smallpox, indicated the resources and strategies needed for an effective response. We found that a mixture of public-health measures designed to stop the spread of the disease would form a more robust and effective response than any single measure. However, unless the attack is very small, the public-health system is unlikely to be able to prevent a surge in demand for acute care that will require community-wide coordination of resources, a definitive patient-triage policy, and temporary treatment practices. The San Antonio communities are integrating our recommendations into their plans.

Suggested Citation

  • George Miller & Stephen Randolph & Jan E. Patterson, 2006. "Responding to Bioterrorist Smallpox in San Antonio," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 36(6), pages 580-590, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:orinte:v:36:y:2006:i:6:p:580-590
    DOI: 10.1287/inte.1060.0228
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Neil M. Ferguson & Matt J. Keeling & W. John Edmunds & Raymond Gani & Bryan T. Grenfell & Roy M. Anderson & Steve Leach, 2003. "Planning for smallpox outbreaks," Nature, Nature, vol. 425(6959), pages 681-685, October.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Desheng Dash Wu & Jia Liu & David L. Olson, 2015. "Simulation Decision System on the Preparation of Emergency Resources Using System Dynamics," Systems Research and Behavioral Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(6), pages 603-615, November.
    3. Ubaid Illahi & Mohammad Shafi Mir, 2021. "Maintaining efficient logistics and supply chain management operations during and after coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic: learning from the past experiences," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(8), pages 11157-11178, August.
    4. Pan, Yuqing & Cheng, T.C.E. & He, Yuxuan & Ng, Chi To & Sethi, Suresh P., 2022. "Foresighted medical resources allocation during an epidemic outbreak," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
    5. Margaret L. Brandeau, 2019. "OR Forum—Public Health Preparedness: Answering (Largely Unanswerable) Questions with Operations Research—The 2016–2017 Philip McCord Morse Lecture," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 67(3), pages 700-710, May.
    6. Willoughby, Keith A. & Chan, Benjamin T.B. & Marques, Shauna, 2016. "Using simulation to test ideas for improving speech language pathology services," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 252(2), pages 657-664.
    7. Marion Rauner & Michaela Schaffhauser-Linzatti & Helmut Niessner, 2012. "Resource planning for ambulance services in mass casualty incidents: a DES-based policy model," Health Care Management Science, Springer, vol. 15(3), pages 254-269, September.
    8. Shoaib, Mohd & Mustafee, Navonil & Madan, Karan & Ramamohan, Varun, 2023. "Leveraging multi-tier healthcare facility network simulations for capacity planning in a pandemic," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).

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