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Scenarios for Strategic Business Planning: A Case History for Aerospace and Defense Companies

Author

Listed:
  • Stephen M. Millett

    (Battelle Columbus Division, 505 King Avenue, Columbus, Ohio 43201-2693)

  • Fred Randles

    (Defense Systems Division, Goodyear Aerospace Corporation, 1210 Massillon Road, Akron, Ohio 44315)

Abstract

Scenarios provide a tool for forecasting long-range, complex, and highly uncertain business environments. They offer logically consistent sets of conditions, trend analysis, and simulated models for strategic business planning. Scenarios are applicable to the planning needs of aerospace and defense companies, whose principal customer is the US Department of Defense. The case history reviews the experience of Battelle and the Goodyear Aerospace Corporation in forecasting by use of scenarios the international environment and US defense expenditures to 1995 and deriving strategic business plans from them.

Suggested Citation

  • Stephen M. Millett & Fred Randles, 1986. "Scenarios for Strategic Business Planning: A Case History for Aerospace and Defense Companies," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 16(6), pages 64-72, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:inm:orinte:v:16:y:1986:i:6:p:64-72
    DOI: 10.1287/inte.16.6.64
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    Cited by:

    1. Lee, Hakyeon & Geum, Youngjung, 2017. "Development of the scenario-based technology roadmap considering layer heterogeneity: An approach using CIA and AHP," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 12-24.
    2. Sapio, Bartolomeo, 1995. "SEARCH (Scenario evaluation and analysis through repeated cross impact handling): a new method for scenario analysis with an application to the Videotel service in Italy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 113-131, March.

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    Keywords

    government: defense; forecasting;

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