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Expert Judgment, Meta-analysis, and Participatory Risk Analysis

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  • Simon French

    (Department of Statistics, University of Warwick, Coventry CV4 7AL, United Kingdom)

Abstract

There are three contexts in which one might wish to combine expert judgments of uncertainty: the expert problem, the group decision problem, and the textbook problem. Much has been written on the first two, which have the focus of a single decision context, but little on the third. The textbook problem arises when one needs to draw together expert judgments into a decision analysis when their judgments were made originally in a context-free manner or perhaps for other decision contexts. In many ways the textbook problem parallels that of performing a meta-analysis of empirical studies. However, there are differences. In this paper, we discuss those difficulties and then focus on two closely related issues: How should expert judgment studies be published so as to facilitate subsequent meta-analyses, and how should such meta-analyses be performed?

Suggested Citation

  • Simon French, 2012. "Expert Judgment, Meta-analysis, and Participatory Risk Analysis," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 9(2), pages 119-127, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ordeca:v:9:y:2012:i:2:p:119-127
    DOI: 10.1287/deca.1120.0234
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Jason R. W. Merrick & Fabrizio Ruggeri & Refik Soyer & L. Robin Keller, 2012. "From the Editors---Games and Decisions in Reliability and Risk," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 9(2), pages 81-85, June.
    2. Mark Burgman, 2015. "Governance for Effective Policy-Relevant Scientific Research: The Shared Governance Model," Asia and the Pacific Policy Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(3), pages 441-451, September.
    3. Hanea, A.M. & McBride, M.F. & Burgman, M.A. & Wintle, B.C. & Fidler, F. & Flander, L. & Twardy, C.R. & Manning, B. & Mascaro, S., 2017. "I nvestigate D iscuss E stimate A ggregate for structured expert judgement," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 267-279.
    4. Simon French & Nikolaos Argyris, 2018. "Decision Analysis and Political Processes," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 15(4), pages 208-222, December.
    5. Gagan Matta, 2020. "Science communication as a preventative tool in the COVID19 pandemic," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 7(1), pages 1-14, December.
    6. Andrew Gelman & Christian Hennig, 2017. "Beyond subjective and objective in statistics," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 180(4), pages 967-1033, October.
    7. F. Beaudouin, 2015. "Implementing a Multiple Criteria Model to Debate About Nuclear Power Plants Safety Choices," Group Decision and Negotiation, Springer, vol. 24(6), pages 1035-1063, November.

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