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Lessons Learned in Applying Decision Analysis to Natural Resource Management for High-Stakes Issues Surrounded by Uncertainty

Author

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  • Kelly F. Robinson

    (U.S. Geological Survey, Georgia Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, Warnell School of Forestry and Natural Resources, University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia 30602)

  • Mark R. DuFour

    (U.S. Geological Survey, Great Lakes Science Center - Lake Erie Biological Station, Huron, Ohio 44839)

  • Jason L. Fischer

    (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Alpena Fish and Wildlife Conservation Office, Trenton, Michigan 4818)

  • Seth J. Herbst

    (Michigan Department of Natural Resources, Lansing, Michigan 48933)

  • Michael L. Jones

    (Quantitative Fisheries Center, Department of Fisheries and Wildlife, Michigan State University, East Lansing, Michigan 48824)

  • Lucas R. Nathan

    (Michigan Department of Natural Resources, Lansing, Michigan 48933)

  • Tammy J. Newcomb

    (Michigan Department of Natural Resources, Lansing, Michigan 48933)

Abstract

Management agencies are tasked with difficult decisions for conservation and management of natural resources. These decisions are difficult because of ecological and social uncertainties, the potential for multiple decision makers from multiple jurisdictions, and the need to account for the diverse values of stakeholders. Decision analysis provides a framework for accounting for these difficulties when making conservation and management decisions. We discuss the benefits of the application of decision analysis for these types of issues and provide insights from three case studies from the Laurentian Great Lakes. These case studies describe applications of decision analysis for decisions within an agency (management of double-crested cormorant), among agencies (response to invasive grass carp), and among agencies and stakeholders (sustainable fisheries harvest management). These case studies provide insight into the ways that decision analysis can be useful for conservation and management of natural resources, but we also highlight future needs for decision making for these resources. In particular, applications of decision analysis for conservation and management would benefit from enhanced integration of both ecological and social science, inclusion of a broader base of stakeholders and rightsholders, and better educational opportunities surrounding decision analysis for undergraduates and graduate students of natural resources management programs. Specific lessons from our experiences include the importance of establishing trust and transparency early through the formation of a working group, collaboratively defining objectives and evaluating uncertainties, risks, and tradeoffs, and implementing participatory modeling processes with an independent facilitator with appropriate quantitative skills.

Suggested Citation

  • Kelly F. Robinson & Mark R. DuFour & Jason L. Fischer & Seth J. Herbst & Michael L. Jones & Lucas R. Nathan & Tammy J. Newcomb, 2023. "Lessons Learned in Applying Decision Analysis to Natural Resource Management for High-Stakes Issues Surrounded by Uncertainty," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 20(4), pages 326-342, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ordeca:v:20:y:2023:i:4:p:326-342
    DOI: 10.1287/deca.2023.0015
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Julien Martin & Paul Fackler & James Nichols & Bruce Lubow & Mitchell Eaton & Michael Runge & Bradley Stith & Catherine Langtimm, 2011. "Structured decision making as a proactive approach to dealing with sea level rise in Florida," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 107(1), pages 185-202, July.
    2. Robin Gregory & Ralph L. Keeney, 2017. "A Practical Approach to Address Uncertainty in Stakeholder Deliberations," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(3), pages 487-501, March.
    3. Johnson, Fred A. & Smith, Brian J. & Bonneau, Mathieu & Martin, Julien & Romagosa, Christina & Mazzotti, Frank & Waddle, Hardin & Reed, Robert N. & Eckles, Jennifer Kettevrlin & Vitt, Laurie J., 2017. "Expert Elicitation, Uncertainty, and the Value of Information in Controlling Invasive Species," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 83-90.
    4. Payam Aminpour & Steven A. Gray & Antonie J. Jetter & Joshua E. Introne & Alison Singer & Robert Arlinghaus, 2020. "Wisdom of stakeholder crowds in complex social–ecological systems," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 3(3), pages 191-199, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kelly F. Robinson & Erin Baker & Elizabeth Ewing & Victoria Hemming & Melissa A. Kenney & Michael C. Runge, 2023. "Decision Analysis to Advance Environmental Sustainability," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 20(4), pages 243-251, December.

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