IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/inm/ordeca/v1y2004i2p71-78.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Speaking of Decisions: Precise Decision Language

Author

Listed:
  • Ronald A. Howard

    (Department of Management Science and Engineering, School of Engineering, Stanford University, Stanford, California 94305-4026)

Abstract

This paper presents the current state of evolution of a language for teaching and practicing decision analysis that may avoid confusion of students, clients, and ourselves. Many of the terms currently used are inaccurate, arcane, or unnecessary. Restricting decision language to terms that are accurate, familiar, and fundamental contributes to clarity of thought and understanding. To illustrate the type of changes advocated, I propose replacing dependence with relevance , expectation with e-value , utility with u-value , and eschewing subjective probability , confidence , uncertainty about probability , any distinction between risk and uncertainty , and states of nature . I show how to incorporate the new terminology in teaching and practice.

Suggested Citation

  • Ronald A. Howard, 2004. "Speaking of Decisions: Precise Decision Language," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 1(2), pages 71-78, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ordeca:v:1:y:2004:i:2:p:71-78
    DOI: 10.1287/deca.1030.0005
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/deca.1030.0005
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1287/deca.1030.0005?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ronald A. Howard, 1988. "Uncertainty about Probability: A Decision Analysis Perspective," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 8(1), pages 91-98, March.
    2. Ronald A. Howard, 1988. "Decision Analysis: Practice and Promise," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 34(6), pages 679-695, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. L. Robin Keller, 2009. "From the Editor..," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 6(1), pages 1-3, March.
    2. Ronald A. Howard, 2004. "Response to Comments on Howard (2004)," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 1(2), pages 89-92, June.
    3. L. Robin Keller & Ali Abbas & Manel Baucells & Vicki M. Bier & David Budescu & John C. Butler & Philippe Delquié & Jason R. W. Merrick & Ahti Salo & George Wu, 2010. "From the Editors..," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 7(4), pages 327-330, December.
      • L. Robin Keller & Manel Baucells & Kevin F. McCardle & Gregory S. Parnell & Ahti Salo, 2007. "From the Editors..," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 4(4), pages 173-175, December.
      • L. Robin Keller & Manel Baucells & John C. Butler & Philippe Delquié & Jason R. W. Merrick & Gregory S. Parnell & Ahti Salo, 2008. "From the Editors..," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 5(4), pages 173-176, December.
      • L. Robin Keller & Manel Baucells & John C. Butler & Philippe Delquié & Jason R. W. Merrick & Gregory S. Parnell & Ahti Salo, 2009. "From the Editors ..," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 6(4), pages 199-201, December.
    4. Mónica D. Oliveira & Inês Mataloto & Panos Kanavos, 2019. "Multi-criteria decision analysis for health technology assessment: addressing methodological challenges to improve the state of the art," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 20(6), pages 891-918, August.
    5. Rex Brown, 2004. "Naming Concepts Worth Naming," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 1(2), pages 86-88, June.
    6. Jason R. W. Merrick & John R. Harrald, 2007. "Making Decisions About Safety in US Ports and Waterways," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 37(3), pages 240-252, June.
    7. Janne Gustafsson, 2020. "Valuation of Research and Development Projects Using Buying and Selling Prices: Generalized Definitions," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 17(2), pages 154-168, June.
    8. L. Robin Keller & Kelly M. Kophazi, 2008. "From the Editors..," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 5(2), pages 57-59, June.
    9. L. Robin Keller, 2011. "Investment and Defense Strategies, Heuristics, and Games: From the Editor ..," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 8(1), pages 1-3, March.
    10. Jeffrey M. Keisler & Patrick S. Noonan, 2012. "Communicating Analytic Results: A Tutorial for Decision Consultants," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 9(3), pages 274-292, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. M. Elisabeth Paté-Cornell & Robin L. Dillon, 2006. "The Respective Roles of Risk and Decision Analyses in Decision Support," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 3(4), pages 220-232, December.
    2. Gordon Hazen & Emanuele Borgonovo & Xuefei Lu, 2023. "Information Density in Decision Analysis," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 20(2), pages 89-108, June.
    3. Alan Brennan & Samer Kharroubi & Anthony O'Hagan & Jim Chilcott, 2007. "Calculating Partial Expected Value of Perfect Information via Monte Carlo Sampling Algorithms," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 27(4), pages 448-470, July.
    4. Thomas W. Keelin & Bradford W. Powley, 2011. "Quantile-Parameterized Distributions," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 8(3), pages 206-219, September.
    5. David V. Pynadath & Bistra Dilkina & David C. Jeong & Richard S. John & Stacy C. Marsella & Chirag Merchant & Lynn C. Miller & Stephen J. Read, 2023. "Disaster world," Computational and Mathematical Organization Theory, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 84-117, March.
    6. Caetani, Alberto Pavlick & Ferreira, Luciano & Borenstein, Denis, 2016. "Development of an integrated decision-making method for an oil refinery restructuring in Brazil," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 197-210.
    7. Lu, Xuefei & Borgonovo, Emanuele, 2023. "Global sensitivity analysis in epidemiological modeling," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 304(1), pages 9-24.
    8. Kaufman, Gordon M. & Mattar, Mahdi, 2003. "Private Risk," Working papers 4316-03, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
    9. Craig R. Fox & Robert T. Clemen, 2005. "Subjective Probability Assessment in Decision Analysis: Partition Dependence and Bias Toward the Ignorance Prior," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 51(9), pages 1417-1432, September.
    10. James C. Felli & Gordon B. Hazen, 2004. "Javelin Diagrams: A Graphical Tool for Probabilistic Sensitivity Analysis," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 1(2), pages 93-107, June.
    11. Dimitrios Gouglas & Kendall Hoyt & Elizabeth Peacocke & Aristidis Kaloudis & Trygve Ottersen & John-Arne Røttingen, 2019. "Setting Strategic Objectives for the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations: An Exploratory Decision Analysis Process," Service Science, INFORMS, vol. 49(6), pages 430-446, November.
    12. Ali E. Abbas & Il-Horn Hann, 2010. "Measuring Risk Aversion in a Name-Your-Own-Price Channel," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 7(1), pages 123-136, March.
    13. Julie Rozenberg & Céline Guivarch & Robert Lempert & Stéphane Hallegatte, 2014. "Building SSPs for climate policy analysis: a scenario elicitation methodology to map the space of possible future challenges to mitigation and adaptation," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 509-522, February.
    14. Sergio Chayet & Wallace J. Hopp, 2008. "Risk‐sensitive sizing of responsive facilities," Naval Research Logistics (NRL), John Wiley & Sons, vol. 55(3), pages 218-233, April.
    15. Roberto Ley-Borrás, 2015. "Deciding on the Decision Situation to Analyze: The Critical First Step of a Decision Analysis," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 12(1), pages 46-58, March.
    16. Douglas K. Owens & Robert F. Nease Jr., 1997. "A Normative Analytic Framework for Development of Practice Guidelines for Specific Clinical Populations," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 17(4), pages 409-426, October.
    17. Bogumił Kamiński & Michał Jakubczyk & Przemysław Szufel, 2018. "A framework for sensitivity analysis of decision trees," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 26(1), pages 135-159, March.
    18. Siebert, Johannes Ulrich & Kunz, Reinhard E. & Rolf, Philipp, 2021. "Effects of decision training on individuals’ decision-making proactivity," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 294(1), pages 264-282.
    19. Ram, Camelia, 2020. "Scenario presentation and scenario generation in multi-criteria assessments: An exploratory study," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    20. Baker, Erin & Keisler, Jeffrey M., 2011. "Cellulosic biofuels: Expert views on prospects for advancement," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 595-605.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:inm:ordeca:v:1:y:2004:i:2:p:71-78. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Asher (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/inforea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.