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Exploitation of Ambiguous Cues to Infer Terrorist Activity

Author

Listed:
  • Kevin S. Ni

    (Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, California 94550)

  • Daniel Faissol

    (Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, California 94550)

  • Thomas Edmunds

    (Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, California 94550)

  • Richard Wheeler

    (Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, California 94550)

Abstract

To aid intelligence analysts in processing ambiguous data regarding nuclear terrorism threats, we develop a methodology that captures and accounts for the uncertainty in new information and incorporates prior beliefs on likely nuclear terrorist activity. This methodology can guide the analyst when making difficult decisions regarding what data are most critical to examine and what threats require greater attention. Our methodology is based on a Bayesian statistical approach that incorporates ambiguous cues to update prior beliefs of adversary activity. We characterize the general process of a nuclear terrorist attack on the United States and describe, using a simplified example, how this can be represented by an event tree. We then define hypothetical cues for the example and give notional strengths to each cue. We also perform sensitivity analysis and show how cue strengths can affect inference. The method can be used to help support decisions regarding resource allocation and interdiction.

Suggested Citation

  • Kevin S. Ni & Daniel Faissol & Thomas Edmunds & Richard Wheeler, 2013. "Exploitation of Ambiguous Cues to Infer Terrorist Activity," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 10(1), pages 42-62, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ordeca:v:10:y:2013:i:1:p:42-62
    DOI: 10.1287/deca.1120.0259
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Vicki M. Bier, 2007. "Choosing What to Protect," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 27(3), pages 607-620, June.
    2. Michael P. Atkinson & Lawrence M. Wein, 2008. "TECHNICAL NOTE---Spatial Queueing Analysis of an Interdiction System to Protect Cities from a Nuclear Terrorist Attack," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 56(1), pages 247-254, February.
    3. Kjell Hausken & Jun Zhuang, 2011. "Governments' and Terrorists' Defense and Attack in a T -Period Game," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 8(1), pages 46-70, March.
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    2. Rakesh K. Sarin & L. Robin Keller, 2013. "From the Editors: Probability Approximations, Anti-Terrorism Strategy, and Bull's-Eye Display for Performance Feedback," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 10(1), pages 1-5, March.
    3. Rakesh K. Sarin & L. Robin Keller, 2013. "From the Editors ---Group Decisions, Preference Elicitation, Experienced Utility, Survival Probabilities, and Portfolio Value of Information," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 10(2), pages 99-102, June.

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