IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/inm/ordeca/v10y2013i1p26-41.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Approximating Joint Probability Distributions Given Partial Information

Author

Listed:
  • Luis V. Montiel

    (Graduate Program in Operations Research and Industrial Engineering, University of Texas at Austin, Austin, Texas 78712)

  • J. Eric Bickel

    (Graduate Program in Operations Research and Industrial Engineering, University of Texas at Austin, Austin, Texas 78712)

Abstract

In this paper, we propose new methods to approximate probability distributions that are incompletely specified. We compare these methods to the use of maximum entropy and quantify the accuracy of all methods within the context of an illustrative example. We show that within the context of our example, the methods we propose are more accurate than existing methods.

Suggested Citation

  • Luis V. Montiel & J. Eric Bickel, 2013. "Approximating Joint Probability Distributions Given Partial Information," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 10(1), pages 26-41, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ordeca:v:10:y:2013:i:1:p:26-41
    DOI: 10.1287/deca.1120.0261
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/deca.1120.0261
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1287/deca.1120.0261?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rakesh K. Sarin, 1979. "An Approach for Long Term Forecasting with an Application to Solar Electric Energy," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 25(6), pages 543-554, June.
    2. James S. Dyer & William Farrell & Paul Bradley, 1973. "Utility Functions for Test Performance," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 20(4-Part-I), pages 507-519, December.
    3. Brian K. Schmidt & T. H. Mattheiss, 1977. "The Probability that a Random Polytope is Bounded," Mathematics of Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 2(3), pages 292-296, August.
    4. Robert L. Smith, 1984. "Efficient Monte Carlo Procedures for Generating Points Uniformly Distributed over Bounded Regions," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 32(6), pages 1296-1308, December.
    5. Claude J. P. Bélisle & H. Edwin Romeijn & Robert L. Smith, 1993. "Hit-and-Run Algorithms for Generating Multivariate Distributions," Mathematics of Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 18(2), pages 255-266, May.
    6. Herbert Moskowitz & Rakesh K. Sarin, 1983. "Improving the Consistency of Conditional Probability Assessments for Forecasting and Decision Making," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 29(6), pages 735-749, June.
    7. Robert T. Clemen & Terence Reilly, 1999. "Correlations and Copulas for Decision and Risk Analysis," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 45(2), pages 208-224, February.
    8. J. Eric Bickel & James E. Smith, 2006. "Optimal Sequential Exploration: A Binary Learning Model," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 3(1), pages 16-32, March.
    9. Luis V. Montiel & J. Eric Bickel, 2012. "A Simulation-Based Approach to Decision Making with Partial Information," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 9(4), pages 329-347, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Tianyang Wang & James S. Dyer & John C. Butler, 2016. "Modeling Correlated Discrete Uncertainties in Event Trees with Copulas," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(2), pages 396-410, February.
    2. Rakesh K. Sarin & L. Robin Keller, 2013. "From the Editors: Probability Approximations, Anti-Terrorism Strategy, and Bull's-Eye Display for Performance Feedback," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 10(1), pages 1-5, March.
    3. Luo, Chunling & Tan, Chin Hon & Liu, Xiao, 2020. "Maximum excess dominance: Identifying impractical solutions in linear problems with interval coefficients," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 282(2), pages 660-676.
    4. Tianyang Wang & James S. Dyer & Warren J. Hahn, 2017. "Sensitivity analysis of decision making under dependent uncertainties using copulas," EURO Journal on Decision Processes, Springer;EURO - The Association of European Operational Research Societies, vol. 5(1), pages 117-139, November.
    5. Christoph Werner & Tim Bedford & John Quigley, 2018. "Sequential Refined Partitioning for Probabilistic Dependence Assessment," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(12), pages 2683-2702, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Luis V. Montiel & J. Eric Bickel, 2014. "A Generalized Sampling Approach for Multilinear Utility Functions Given Partial Preference Information," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 11(3), pages 147-170, September.
    2. Tianyang Wang & James S. Dyer & John C. Butler, 2016. "Modeling Correlated Discrete Uncertainties in Event Trees with Copulas," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(2), pages 396-410, February.
    3. Luis V. Montiel & J. Eric Bickel, 2013. "Generating a Random Collection of Discrete Joint Probability Distributions Subject to Partial Information," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 15(4), pages 951-967, December.
    4. L. Robin Keller & Ali Abbas & J. Eric Bickel & Vicki M. Bier & David V. Budescu & John C. Butler & Enrico Diecidue & Robin L. Dillon-Merrill & Raimo P. Hämäläinen & Kenneth C. Lichtendahl & Jason R. W, 2012. "From the Editors ---Brainstorming, Multiplicative Utilities, Partial Information on Probabilities or Outcomes, and Regulatory Focus," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 9(4), pages 297-302, December.
    5. Luis V. Montiel & J. Eric Bickel, 2012. "A Simulation-Based Approach to Decision Making with Partial Information," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 9(4), pages 329-347, December.
    6. Stephen Baumert & Archis Ghate & Seksan Kiatsupaibul & Yanfang Shen & Robert L. Smith & Zelda B. Zabinsky, 2009. "Discrete Hit-and-Run for Sampling Points from Arbitrary Distributions Over Subsets of Integer Hyperrectangles," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 57(3), pages 727-739, June.
    7. Zanakis, Stelios H. & Mandakovic, Tomislav & Gupta, Sushil K. & Sahay, Sundeep & Hong, Sungwan, 1995. "A review of program evaluation and fund allocation methods within the service and government sectors," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 59-79, March.
    8. Tianyang Wang & James S. Dyer & Warren J. Hahn, 2017. "Sensitivity analysis of decision making under dependent uncertainties using copulas," EURO Journal on Decision Processes, Springer;EURO - The Association of European Operational Research Societies, vol. 5(1), pages 117-139, November.
    9. Sorawit Saengkyongam & Anthony Hayter & Seksan Kiatsupaibul & Wei Liu, 2020. "Efficient computation of the stochastic behavior of partial sum processes," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 35(1), pages 343-358, March.
    10. Cyril Bachelard & Apostolos Chalkis & Vissarion Fisikopoulos & Elias Tsigaridas, 2023. "Randomized geometric tools for anomaly detection in stock markets," Post-Print hal-04223511, HAL.
    11. Tianyang Wang & James S. Dyer, 2012. "A Copulas-Based Approach to Modeling Dependence in Decision Trees," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 60(1), pages 225-242, February.
    12. Woodruff, Joshua & Dimitrov, Nedialko B., 2018. "Optimal discretization for decision analysis," Operations Research Perspectives, Elsevier, vol. 5(C), pages 288-305.
    13. Cyril Bachelard & Apostolos Chalkis & Vissarion Fisikopoulos & Elias Tsigaridas, 2022. "Randomized geometric tools for anomaly detection in stock markets," Papers 2205.03852, arXiv.org, revised May 2022.
    14. Badenbroek, Riley & de Klerk, Etienne, 2022. "Complexity analysis of a sampling-based interior point method for convex optimization," Other publications TiSEM 3d774c6d-8141-4f31-a621-5, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    15. Christoph Werner & Tim Bedford & John Quigley, 2018. "Sequential Refined Partitioning for Probabilistic Dependence Assessment," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(12), pages 2683-2702, December.
    16. Rakesh K. Sarin & L. Robin Keller, 2013. "From the Editors: Probability Approximations, Anti-Terrorism Strategy, and Bull's-Eye Display for Performance Feedback," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 10(1), pages 1-5, March.
    17. J. Eric Bickel & James E. Smith, 2006. "Optimal Sequential Exploration: A Binary Learning Model," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 3(1), pages 16-32, March.
    18. Bélisle, Claude, 2000. "Slow hit-and-run sampling," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 33-43, March.
    19. Riley Badenbroek & Etienne Klerk, 2022. "Simulated Annealing for Convex Optimization: Rigorous Complexity Analysis and Practical Perspectives," Journal of Optimization Theory and Applications, Springer, vol. 194(2), pages 465-491, August.
    20. de Klerk, Etienne & Badenbroek, Riley, 2022. "Simulated annealing with hit-and-run for convex optimization: complexity analysis and practical perspectives," Other publications TiSEM 323b4588-65e0-4889-a555-9, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:inm:ordeca:v:10:y:2013:i:1:p:26-41. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Asher (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/inforea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.