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An assessment of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey’s survey of expectations

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Author Info

  • Ece ORAL

    (Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası)

  • Hülya SAYGILI

    (Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası)

  • Mesut SAYGILI

    (Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası)

  • S. Özge TUNCEL

    (Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası)

Abstract

After the financial and currency crisis in 2001, a new monetary policy era had begun in Turkey leading to a policy switch from fixed exchange rate to inflation targeting regime. This new monetary policy regime necessitates managing inflation expectations to curtail inertia in inflation dynamics. In line with these developments, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey decided to conduct a survey for measuring inflation expectations, as they comprise an important part of the transmission channel of monetary policy. Accumulated survey data enable us a comprehensive assessment of medium-term inflation expectations. The aim of this paper is to discuss the properties of the survey and investigate 12-month ahead inflation expectations. A detailed evaluation of inflation expectations in terms of changes in their distribution and forecasting performance is given at aggregate and sectoral levels.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Bilgesel Yayincilik in its journal İktisat İşletme ve Finans.

Volume (Year): 24 (2009)
Issue (Month): 276 ()
Pages: 23-51

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Handle: RePEc:iif:iifjrn:v:24:y:2009:i:276:p:23-51

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Web page: http://iif.com.tr

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Keywords: Inflation Expectations; Survey Data; Monetary Policy;

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