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Who Will Pay for Long-Term Care in the UK? Projections Linking Macro- and Micro-Simulation Models

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Author Info

  • Ruth Hancock
  • Adelina Comas-Herrera
  • Raphael Wittenberg
  • Linda Pickard

Abstract

The long-term care funding system continues to attract much debate in the UK. We produce projections of state and private long-term care expenditure and analyse the distributional impact of state-financed care, through innovative linking of macro- and micro-simulation models. Variant assumptions about life expectancy, dependency and care costs are examined and the impact of universal state-financed (‘free’) personal care, based on need but not ability to pay, is investigated. We find that future long-term care expenditure is subject to considerable uncertainty and is particularly sensitive to assumed future trends in real input costs. On a central set of assumptions, free personal care would, by 2051, increase public spending on long-term care from 1.1 per cent of GDP to 1.3 per cent, or more if it generated an increase in demand. Among the care-home population aged 85 or over, the immediate beneficiaries of free personal care would be those with relatively high incomes.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Institute for Fiscal Studies in its journal Fiscal Studies.

Volume (Year): 24 (2003)
Issue (Month): 4 (December)
Pages: 387-426

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Handle: RePEc:ifs:fistud:v:24:y:2003:i:4:p:387-426

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Cited by:
  1. Rinaldo Brau & Matteo Lippi Bruni, 2008. "Eliciting the demand for long-term care coverage: a discrete choice modelling analysis," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(3), pages 411-433.
  2. Rinaldo Brau & Matteo Lippi Bruni & Anna Maria Pinna, 2010. "Public versus private demand for covering long-term care expenditures," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(28), pages 3651-3668.
  3. R. Brau & M. Lippi Bruni & AM. Pinna, 2004. "Public vs private demand for covering long term care expenditures," Working Paper CRENoS 200408, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
  4. repec:ese:iserwp:2007-13 is not listed on IDEAS
  5. Ruth Hancock & Juliette Malley & Raphael Wittenberg & Marcello Morciano & Linda Pickard & Derek King & Adelina Comas-Herrera, 2013. "The role of care home fees in the public costs and distributional effects of potential reforms to care home funding for older people in England," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 43154, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  6. Carmichael, F. & Charles, S. & Hulme, C., 2010. "Who will care? Employment participation and willingness to supply informal care," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 182-190, January.

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