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Unobserved Rational Expectations and the German Hyperinflation with Endogenous Money Supply

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  • Burmeister, Edwin
  • Wall, Kent D

Abstract

A Kalman filtering technique is employed to test the convergent expectation hypothesis in the great German hyperinflation when the money supply is endogenously determined. After converting the model structure to a state space form, the parameters are estimated via minimization of a Gaussian likelihood function. The result is then used in a filter- smoother combination to yield smoothed estimates of the state variable associated with the arbitrary constant of the rational expectations solution. Bo th para-metric and nonparametric tests lead us to reject the null hypothesis of convergent expectations. Copyright 1987 by Economics Department of the University of Pennsylvania and the Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association.

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  • Burmeister, Edwin & Wall, Kent D, 1987. "Unobserved Rational Expectations and the German Hyperinflation with Endogenous Money Supply," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 28(1), pages 15-32, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:ier:iecrev:v:28:y:1987:i:1:p:15-32
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    Cited by:

    1. Hartwell, Christopher A., 2019. "Short waves in Hungary, 1923 and 1946: Persistence, chaos, and (lack of) control," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 532-550.
    2. Nicolini, Juan Pablo, 1996. "Ruling out speculative hyperinflations The role of the government," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 791-809, May.
    3. Ruge-Murcia, Francisco J., 1999. "Government expenditure and the dynamics of high inflation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 333-358, April.
    4. Reed, Albert J., 1992. "A Framework for Examining Direct Foreign Investment in the Processed Food Industry," Occasional Papers 233082, Regional Research Project NC-194: Organization and Performance of World Food Systems.
    5. RUGE-MURCIA, Francisco J., 1997. "Credibility and Signaling in Disinflation- a Cross Country Examination," Cahiers de recherche 9712, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
    6. Jesus Vazquez, 2002. "Does the Lucas critique apply during hyperinflation?: empirical evidence from four hyperinflationary episodes," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(11), pages 1389-1397.
    7. Jesús Vazquez, 1995. "The relative importance of inflation and currency depreciation in the demand for money: an application of the estimation by simulation method to the German hyperinflation," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 19(2), pages 269-289, May.

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