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Numerical weather prediction or stochastic modelling: an objective criterion of choice for the global radiation forecasting

Author

Listed:
  • Cyril Voyant
  • Gilles Notton
  • Christophe Paoli
  • Marie-Laure Nivet
  • Marc Muselli
  • Kahina Dahmani

Abstract

Numerous methods exist and were developed for global radiation forecasting. The two most popular types are the numerical weather predictions (NWPs) and the predictions using stochastic approaches. We propose to compute a parameter noted χ constructed in part from the mutual information which is a quantity that measures the mutual dependence of two variables. Both of these are calculated with the objective to establish the more relevant method between NWP and stochastic models concerning the current problem.

Suggested Citation

  • Cyril Voyant & Gilles Notton & Christophe Paoli & Marie-Laure Nivet & Marc Muselli & Kahina Dahmani, 2016. "Numerical weather prediction or stochastic modelling: an objective criterion of choice for the global radiation forecasting," International Journal of Energy Technology and Policy, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 12(3), pages 209-219.
    • Handle: RePEc:ids:ijetpo:v:12:y:2016:i:3:p:209-219
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    Cited by:

    1. Voyant, Cyril & Motte, Fabrice & Fouilloy, Alexis & Notton, Gilles & Paoli, Christophe & Nivet, Marie-Laure, 2017. "Forecasting method for global radiation time series without training phase: Comparison with other well-known prediction methodologies," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 199-208.

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