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The Application of Fourier Residual Grey Verhulst and Grey Markov Model in Analyzing the Global ICT Development

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Author Info

  • Shaghayegh Kordnoori

    ()
    (Iran Telecommunication Research Center)

  • Hamidreza Mostafaei

    ()
    (Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran)

  • Shirin Kordnoori

    ()
    (Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran)

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    Abstract

    Grey theory deals with systems with inadequate, poor and uncertain information. Modeling against insufficient sample and saturated sequence, Grey Verhulst model has its particular perfection. Its modeling process is easy and high prediction accuracy can be achieved. In this paper, the application of a Grey Verhulst model in studying the global ICT development was presented; Moreover a new Grey Verhulst model and Fourier residual Grey Verhulst model were suggested to improve the forecasting accuracy. Data of the world fixed-telephone subscriptions which is one of ICT indicator from 2001 to 2010 were used as a forecasted example. Finally we increased the precision by employing the Grey Markov model which is the mixture of the GM(1,1) and a Markov model

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Faculty of Economic Sciences, Hyperion University of Bucharest, Romania in its journal Hyperion Economic Journal.

    Volume (Year): 2 (2014)
    Issue (Month): 1 (March)
    Pages: 50-60

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    Handle: RePEc:hyp:journl:v:2:y:2014:i:1:p:50-60

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    Postal: Hyperion University, Faculty of Economic Sciences, Calea Calarasilor no. 169, district 3, Bucharest, 030615, Romania
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    Related research

    Keywords: Grey Verhulst; Fourier modification; Grey Markov; ICT development;

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