History of Econometrics of the First Half of the Twentieth Century: A Survey and Bibliometric Analysis

This essay provides a survey of the history of econometrics of the first half of the twentieth century. Relying on the preexisting literature, it narrates the work of the following scholars : Henry Moore, who applied basic statistical methods to criticize static economic theory in the early 20th century ; Ragnar Frisch, who introduced more systematic mathematical statistics and made major contributions to organize a community of econometricians ; Jan Tinbergen, who constructed large-scale macro-econometric models in the 1930s ; and Trygve Haavelmo and other Cowles Commission researchers, who firmly based econometrics on probability theory. In addition, the essay uses bibliometric methods to identify influential econometricians in the second half of the 20th century. Finally it will conclude that a tension between theoretical and empirical approaches in economics was neutralized with the propagation of the practice of using “models” among economists during the mid-20th century, and it will also suggest topics for future research on the econometrics subsequent to the Cowles Commission.