IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v16y2023i1p264-d1308662.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Grain Production in Turkey and Its Environmental Drivers Using ARDL in the Age of Climate Change

Author

Listed:
  • Ismail Bulent Gurbuz

    (Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, Bursa Uludag University, Gorukle Campus, Nilufer, Bursa 16059, Turkey)

  • Irfan Kadioglu

    (Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, Bursa Uludag University, Gorukle Campus, Nilufer, Bursa 16059, Turkey)

Abstract

This study aims to evaluate the long-run and causality relationships between the annual grain production (kg per hectare) in Turkey, fertilizer used in agriculture, the number of tractors, agricultural greenhouse gas emissions, and grain production area from 1988 to 2018. The study’s data for the years 1988–2018 were taken from the World Bank and Turkish Statistical Institute (Turkstat) databases. The autoregressive distributed lag bounds (ARDL) test was applied to estimate the cointegration between the variables. The cointegration test results confirmed a long-run relationship between the variables. The short-run estimation revealed that the error correction coefficient was negative and statistically significant. The result obtained for the error correction term estimated that the deviations from the short-run equilibrium would be corrected, and the system would converge to the long-run equilibrium within 1.05 years. Further, the long-run estimation showed that all variables included in the model had a statistically significant effect on the dependent variable. While this relationship was negative for grain production amount and carbon emission, it was positive for fertilizer use and the number of tractors. The grain areas estimated as the dependent variable in the ARDL model were in a feedback relationship with the current production and number of tractors variables, while the fertilizer and carbon emission variables were in a unidirectional causality relationship towards the grain production area. There is a negative relationship between grain production (kg per hectare) and grain production areas (hectares). A 1% increase in grain production leads to a decrease of approximately 0.30% in grain production areas. Agricultural greenhouse gas emissions, another variable that stands out with its negative impact in ARDL long-run estimation results, indicate that product groups produced as an alternative to grain have a higher emission-generating power. The other long-run estimation results reveal that the tractor variable positively affects grain production areas.

Suggested Citation

  • Ismail Bulent Gurbuz & Irfan Kadioglu, 2023. "Grain Production in Turkey and Its Environmental Drivers Using ARDL in the Age of Climate Change," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(1), pages 1-16, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:16:y:2023:i:1:p:264-:d:1308662
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/16/1/264/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/16/1/264/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    2. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    3. Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
    4. Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2005. "The saving and investment nexus for China: evidence from cointegration tests," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(17), pages 1979-1990.
    5. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    6. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    7. E. Gutiérrez-Moya & B. Adenso-Díaz & S. Lozano, 2021. "Analysis and vulnerability of the international wheat trade network," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 13(1), pages 113-128, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kaminski, Jermain & Hopp, Christian & Tykvová, Tereza, 2019. "New technology assessment in entrepreneurial financing – Does crowdfunding predict venture capital investments?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 287-302.
    2. Kouton, Jeffrey, 2018. "Education expenditure and economic growth: Some empirical evidence from Côte d’Ivoire," MPRA Paper 88350, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Halil Alt ntas & Melike Kum, 2013. "Multivariate Granger Causality between Electricity Generation, Exports, Prices and Economic Growth in Turkey," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 3(Special), pages 41-51.
    4. Constantinos Alexiou & Persefoni Tsaliki & Lefteris Tsoulfidis, 2008. "The Greek Hyperinflation Revisited," Ekonomia, Cyprus Economic Society and University of Cyprus, vol. 11(1), pages 19-34, Summer.
    5. Olena STRYZHAK & Ramazan SAYAR & Yılmaz Onur ARI, 2022. "Geopolitical risks, GDP and tourism: an ARDL-ECM cointegration study on Ukraine," CES Working Papers, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 14(1), pages 85-113, May.
    6. Shahiduzzaman, Md. & Alam, Khorshed, 2014. "The long-run impact of Information and Communication Technology on economic output: The case of Australia," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(7), pages 623-633.
    7. Phouphet Kyophilavong & Gazi Salah Uddin & Muhammad Shahbaz, 2016. "The Nexus between Financial Development and Economic Growth in Lao PDR," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 17(2), pages 303-317, April.
    8. Mehmet Balcilar & Gizem Uzuner & Chinazaekpere Nwani & Festus Victor Bekun, 2023. "Boosting Energy Efficiency in Turkey: The Role of Public–Private Partnership Investment," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(3), pages 1-16, January.
    9. Zhihui Lv & Amanda M. Y. Chu & Michael McAleer & Wing-Keung Wong, 2019. "Modelling Economic Growth, Carbon Emissions, and Fossil Fuel Consumption in China: Cointegration and Multivariate Causality," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(21), pages 1-35, October.
    10. Phouphet KYOPHILAVONG & Gazi Salah Uddin & Muhammad Shahbaz, 2014. "The Nexus Between Financial Development and Economic Growth in Laos," Working Papers 2014-447, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    11. Mpho Bosupeng & Janet Dzator & Andrew Nadolny, 2019. "Exchange Rate Misalignment and Capital Flight from Botswana: A Cointegration Approach with Risk Thresholds," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-26, June.
    12. Ali, Adnan & Ramakrishnan, Suresh & Faisal,, 2022. "Financial development and natural resources. Is there a stock market resource curse?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    13. Hasanov, Fakhri J. & Shannak, Sa'd, 2020. "Electricity incentives for agriculture in Saudi Arabia. Is that relevant to remove them?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    14. Hasanov, Fakhri, 2009. "Analyzing price level in a booming economy: the case of Azerbaijan," MPRA Paper 29555, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Farhani, Sahbi & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Arouri, Mohamed & Teulon, Frédéric, 2014. "The role of natural gas consumption and trade in Tunisia's output," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 677-684.
    16. Sahbi Farhani & Anissa Chaibi & Christophe Rault, 2014. "A study of CO2 emissions, output,energy consumption, and trade," Working Papers 2014-56, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    17. Tang, Chor-Foon & Lau, Evan, 2011. "The Behaviour of Disaggregated Public Expenditures and Income in Malaysia," Review of Applied Economics, Lincoln University, Department of Financial and Business Systems, vol. 7(1-2), pages 1-13, March.
    18. Eléazar Zerbo, 2017. "Energy consumption and economic growth in Sub-Saharan African countries: Further evidence," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 37(3), pages 1720-1744.
    19. Khan, Muhammad Azhar & Khan, Muhammad Zahir & Zaman, Khalid & Khan, Muhammad Mushtaq & Zahoor, Hina, 2013. "RETRACTED: Causal links between greenhouse gas emissions, economic growth and energy consumption in Pakistan: A fatal disorder of society," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 166-176.
    20. Farhani, Sahbi & Chaibi, Anissa & Rault, Christophe, 2014. "CO2 emissions, output, energy consumption, and trade in Tunisia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 426-434.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:16:y:2023:i:1:p:264-:d:1308662. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.