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A Data-Driven Approach for Assessing Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Applied to Puget Sound, Washington State, USA

Author

Listed:
  • Ian Miller

    (Washington Sea Grant, Port Angeles, WA 98362, USA)

  • Avery Maverick

    (Coastal Geologic Services, Bellingham, WA 98225, USA)

  • Jim Johannessen

    (Coastal Geologic Services, Bellingham, WA 98225, USA)

  • Chloe Fleming

    (CSS-Inc., under NOAA National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science Contract No. EA133C-1384, Fairfax, VA 22031, USA)

  • Seann Regan

    (CSS-Inc., under NOAA National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science Contract No. EA133C-1384, Fairfax, VA 22031, USA)

Abstract

Sea level rise (SLR) will exert pressures on assets with social value, including things such as infrastructure and habitats, in the coastal zone. Assessing and ranking the vulnerability of those assets can provide insights that support planning and projects that can reduce those vulnerabilities. In this study, we develop a quantitative, data-drive framework for calculating a sea level rise vulnerability score, using publicly available spatial data, for 111,239 parcels in Puget Sound, Washington State, USA. Notably, our approach incorporates an assessment of coastal erosion, as well as coastal flooding, in an evaluation of the exposure of each parcel, and impacts to habitats are quantified alongside impacts to existing infrastructure. The results suggest that sea level rise vulnerability in Puget Sound is widely distributed, but the overall distribution of scores is heavily skewed, suggesting that adaptation actions directed at a relatively small number of parcels could yield significant reductions in vulnerability. The results are also coupled with a concurrently developed social vulnerability index, which provides additional insight regarding those people and places that may be predisposed to adverse impacts from SLR-related hazards. We find that the proposed approach offers advantages in terms of advancing equitable SLR-related risk reduction, but also that the results should be carefully interpreted considering embedded assumptions and data limitations.

Suggested Citation

  • Ian Miller & Avery Maverick & Jim Johannessen & Chloe Fleming & Seann Regan, 2023. "A Data-Driven Approach for Assessing Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Applied to Puget Sound, Washington State, USA," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-19, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:15:y:2023:i:6:p:5401-:d:1100853
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    2. K. M. Befus & P. L. Barnard & D. J. Hoover & J. A. Finzi Hart & C. I. Voss, 2020. "Increasing threat of coastal groundwater hazards from sea-level rise in California," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 10(10), pages 946-952, October.
    3. Susan L. Cutter & Bryan J. Boruff & W. Lynn Shirley, 2003. "Social Vulnerability to Environmental Hazards," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 84(2), pages 242-261, June.
    4. Kairis, Peter A. & Rybczyk, John M., 2010. "Sea level rise and eelgrass (Zostera marina) production: A spatially explicit relative elevation model for Padilla Bay, WA," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 221(7), pages 1005-1016.
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