IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v14y2022i21p14602-d965134.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Spatiotemporal Evolution and Influencing Factors of Population Growth Transition in China during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Author

Listed:
  • Sheng Zhong

    (School of Economics and Management, Lanzhou Jiaotong University, 88 Anning W Rd, Anning District, Lanzhou 730070, China)

  • Mingting Shi

    (College of Management, Gansu Agricultural University, 1 Yingmen Village, Anning District, Lanzhou 730070, China)

  • Qiang Xiao

    (School of Economics and Management, Lanzhou Jiaotong University, 88 Anning W Rd, Anning District, Lanzhou 730070, China)

Abstract

At present, China has lost its demographic dividend. Meanwhile, in the face of the twin challenges of rising living costs and the uneven distribution of educational resources, the fertility intentions of ordinary people are rapidly declining. In the background, China’s latest birth incentive policy has not had the desired effect. Especially with the COVID-19 pandemic, these issues have become more complicated, making it more difficult to achieve policy goals. Analysis of changing characteristics and influencing mechanisms in China’s current stage of population growth is therefore significant. Such analysis can help improve China’s population structure and preserve the advantage of human resource endowment. In this paper, we use data from 2008, 2012, 2016, and 2020 as made available from the resources of China’s National Bureau of Statistics and National Health Commission. These included annual macro statistics, seventh census data, and COVID-19 pandemic data, allowing us to analyze the influencing mechanism of China’s population growth by using the Geographic Detector Model. The research revealed the dependency ratio as the primary factor influencing spatial differentiation of population growth in China, indicating that the dependency burden plays a role in inhibiting population growth. The secondary factor showed different changes in stages. At the same time, any two factors showed more substantial explanatory power after the interaction, meaning the spatial distribution of China’s population growth results from the joint influence of many factors. The strong interaction was mainly concentrated around the dependency ratio and were with women’s political participation and internet coverage. However, under the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, the explanatory power of traditional factors was diluted, leading to a decline in the strength of interaction.

Suggested Citation

  • Sheng Zhong & Mingting Shi & Qiang Xiao, 2022. "Spatiotemporal Evolution and Influencing Factors of Population Growth Transition in China during the COVID-19 Pandemic," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-17, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:14:y:2022:i:21:p:14602-:d:965134
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/14/21/14602/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/14/21/14602/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. M. Klupt, 2018. "In Search Of Theory: Prospects Of Population Research In Countries That Have Completed The Demographic Transition," Population and Economics, ARPHA Platform, vol. 2(1), pages 1-38, April.
    2. Charles I. Jones, 2022. "The End of Economic Growth? Unintended Consequences of a Declining Population," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(11), pages 3489-3527, November.
    3. Lee, Hyun-Hoon & Shin, Kwanho, 2019. "Nonlinear effects of population aging on economic growth," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 1-1.
    4. Naso, Pedro & Lanz, Bruno & Swanson, Tim, 2020. "The return of Malthus? Resource constraints in an era of declining population growth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sasaki, Hiroaki & Mino, Kazuo, 2021. "Effects of Exhaustible Resources and Declining Population on Economic Growth with Hotelling's Rule," MPRA Paper 107787, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Mino, Kazuo & Sasaki, Hiroaki, 2023. "Long-run consequences of population decline in an economy with exhaustible resources," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    3. Kazuo Mino & Hiroaki Sasaki, 2021. "Long-Run Consequences of Population Decline in an Economy with Exhaustible Natural Resources," KIER Working Papers 1062, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
    4. Naudé, Wim & Nagler, Paula, 2022. "The Ossified Economy: The Case of Germany, 1870-2020," IZA Discussion Papers 15607, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    5. Daniele Angelini, 2023. "Aging Population and Technology Adoption," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz 2023-01, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
    6. Matthias Doepke & Anne Hannusch & Fabian Kindermann & Michèle Tertilt, 2022. "The Economics of Fertility: A New Era," NBER Working Papers 29948, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Gordon B. Dahl & Runjing Lu & William Mullins, 2022. "Partisan Fertility and Presidential Elections," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 4(4), pages 473-490, December.
    8. Joan E. Madia & Francesco Moscone & Asieh Hosseini Tabaghdehi & Jong-Chol An & Changkeun Lee, 2024. "Fertility Decline and Tax Revenues in South Korea," FBK-IRVAPP Working Papers 2024-02, Research Institute for the Evaluation of Public Policies (IRVAPP), Bruno Kessler Foundation.
    9. Katarzyna Maj-Waśniowska & Tomasz Jedynak, 2020. "The Issues and Challenges of Local Government Units in the Era of Population Ageing," Administrative Sciences, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-23, June.
    10. Johan E. Gustafsson & Dean Spears & St phane Zuber, 2023. "Utilitarianism is Implied by Social and Individual Dominance," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 23016, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    11. Clara E. Piano, 2022. "The family and the state: a public choice perspective," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 35(3), pages 383-405, September.
    12. Tingting Li & Hongwei Lu & Qiyou Luo & Guojing Li & Mingjie Gao, 2024. "The Impact of Rural Population Aging on Agricultural Cropping Structure: Evidence from China’s Provinces," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-19, April.
    13. Xu, Da & Shang, Yunfeng & Yang, Qin & Chen, Hui, 2023. "Population aging and eco-tourism efficiency: Ways to promote green recovery," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 1-9.
    14. Sascha O. Becker & Jared Rubin & Ludger Woessmann, 2023. "Religion and Growth," Monash Economics Working Papers 2023-15, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    15. Chen, Chien-Hsun, 2023. "Taiwan’s Rapidly Aging Population: A Crisis in the Making?," MPRA Paper 116543, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Mark Setterfield, 2023. "Post-Keynesian growth theory and the supply side: a feminist-structuralist approach," Working Papers 2302, New School for Social Research, Department of Economics.
    17. Miao Zhang & Shibing You & Li Zhang & Houli Zhang & Yukun Wang, 2023. "Dynamic Analysis of the Effects of Aging on China’s Sustainable Economic Growth," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-16, March.
    18. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Gustavo Ventura & Wen Yao, 2023. "The Wealth of Working Nations," PIER Working Paper Archive 24-002, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    19. Rannveig Kaldager Hart & Janna Bergsvik & Agnes Fauske & Wookun Kim, 2023. "Causal Analysis of Policy Effects on Fertility," CESifo Working Paper Series 10690, CESifo.
    20. Nicolò Maffei-Faccioli, 2021. "Identifying the sources of the slowdown in growth: Demand vs. supply," Working Paper 2021/9, Norges Bank.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:14:y:2022:i:21:p:14602-:d:965134. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.