IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v13y2021i2p569-d477352.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Predicting Post-Fire Tree Mortality in a Temperate Pine Forest, Korea

Author

Listed:
  • Semyung Kwon

    (Division of Forest Restoration and Resource Management, National Institute of Forest Science, Seoul 02455, Korea)

  • Sanghyun Kim

    (Division of Forest Restoration and Resource Management, National Institute of Forest Science, Seoul 02455, Korea
    Group of Research in Ecology-MRC Abitibi (GREMA), Forest Research Institute, University of Québec in Abitibi-Témiscamingue, Amos Campus, Amos, QC J9T 2L8, Canada
    Center for Forest Research, University of Québec in Montréal, Montréal, QC H3C 3P8, Canada)

  • Jeonghwan Kim

    (Division of Forest Restoration and Resource Management, National Institute of Forest Science, Seoul 02455, Korea
    Division of Forest Welfare Statistics, Korea Forest Welfare Institute, Daejeon 35236, Korea)

  • Wonseok Kang

    (Division of Forest Restoration and Resource Management, National Institute of Forest Science, Seoul 02455, Korea)

  • Ki-Hyung Park

    (Division of Forest Restoration and Resource Management, National Institute of Forest Science, Seoul 02455, Korea)

  • Chan-Beom Kim

    (Temperate Middle Part Plant Conservation Team, Sejong National Arboretum, Sejong 30106, Korea)

  • Miguel M. Girona

    (Group of Research in Ecology-MRC Abitibi (GREMA), Forest Research Institute, University of Québec in Abitibi-Témiscamingue, Amos Campus, Amos, QC J9T 2L8, Canada
    Center for Forest Research, University of Québec in Montréal, Montréal, QC H3C 3P8, Canada
    Restoration Ecology Group, Department of Wildlife, Fish, and Environmental Studies, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences (SLU), 901 83 Umeå, Sweden)

Abstract

Warmer and drier conditions in temperate regions are increasing the length of the wildfire season. Given the greater fire frequency and extent of burned areas under climate warming, greater focus has been placed on predicting post-fire tree mortality as a crucial component of sustainable forest management. This study evaluates the potential of logistic regression models to predict post-fire tree mortality in Korean red pine ( Pinus densiflora ) stands, and we propose novel means of evaluating bark injury. In the Samcheok region of Korea, we measured topography (elevation, slope, and aspect), tree characteristics (tree/crown height and diameter at breast height (DBH)), and bark injuries (bark scorch height/proportion/index) at three sites subjected to a surface fire. We determined tree status (dead or live) over three years after the initial fire. The bark scorch index (BSI) produced the best univariate model, and by combining this index with the DBH produced the highest predictive capacity in multiple logistic regression models. A three-variable model (BSI, DBH, and slope) enhanced this predictive capacity to 87%. Our logistic regression analysis accurately predicted tree mortality three years post fire. Our three-variable model provides a useful and convenient decision-making tool for land managers to optimize salvage harvesting of post-fire stands.

Suggested Citation

  • Semyung Kwon & Sanghyun Kim & Jeonghwan Kim & Wonseok Kang & Ki-Hyung Park & Chan-Beom Kim & Miguel M. Girona, 2021. "Predicting Post-Fire Tree Mortality in a Temperate Pine Forest, Korea," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-16, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:13:y:2021:i:2:p:569-:d:477352
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/13/2/569/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/13/2/569/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rupert Seidl & Dominik Thom & Markus Kautz & Dario Martin-Benito & Mikko Peltoniemi & Giorgio Vacchiano & Jan Wild & Davide Ascoli & Michal Petr & Juha Honkaniemi & Manfred J. Lexer & Volodymyr Trotsi, 2017. "Forest disturbances under climate change," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 7(6), pages 395-402, June.
    2. Susete Marques & Marco Marto & Vladimir Bushenkov & Marc McDill & JoséG. Borges, 2017. "Addressing Wildfire Risk in Forest Management Planning with Multiple Criteria Decision Making Methods," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-17, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Brigite Botequim & Miguel N. Bugalho & Ana Raquel Rodrigues & Susete Marques & Marco Marto & José G. Borges, 2021. "Combining Tree Species Composition and Understory Coverage Indicators with Optimization Techniques to Address Concerns with Landscape-Level Biodiversity," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-26, January.
    2. Rafael González-Val, 2021. "The Probability Distribution of Worldwide Forest Areas," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-19, January.
    3. Li Yu & Fengxue Gu & Mei Huang & Bo Tao & Man Hao & Zhaosheng Wang, 2020. "Impacts of 1.5 °C and 2 °C Global Warming on Net Primary Productivity and Carbon Balance in China’s Terrestrial Ecosystems," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-17, April.
    4. Kolo, Horst & Kindu, Mengistie & Knoke, Thomas, 2020. "Optimizing forest management for timber production, carbon sequestration and groundwater recharge," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 44(C).
    5. Zefeng Chen & Weiguang Wang & Giovanni Forzieri & Alessandro Cescatti, 2024. "Transition from positive to negative indirect CO2 effects on the vegetation carbon uptake," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-13, December.
    6. Aline Fugeray-Scarbel & Xavier Irz & Stéphane Lemarié, 2023. "Innovation in forest tree genetics: A comparative economic analysis in the European context," Post-Print hal-04189304, HAL.
    7. Asada, Raphael & Hurmekoski, Elias & Hoeben, Annechien Dirkje & Patacca, Marco & Stern, Tobias & Toppinen, Anne, 2023. "Resilient forest-based value chains? Econometric analysis of roundwood prices in five European countries in the era of natural disturbances," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    8. Khuc, Quy Van & Ho, Tung Manh & Nguyen, Hong-Kong T. & Nguyen, Minh-Hoang & Ho, Manh-Toan & Vuong, Thu-Trang & La, Viet-Phuong & Vuong, Quan-Hoang, 2020. "Toward a new paradigm of environmentally friendly cultural values," OSF Preprints 3g26q, Center for Open Science.
    9. Qi Cai & Yushi Cai & Yali Wen, 2018. "Spatially Differentiated Trends between Forest Pest-Induced Losses and Measures for Their Control in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-16, December.
    10. Dongfan Xu & Jialong Zhang & Rui Bao & Yi Liao & Dongyang Han & Qianwei Liu & Tao Cheng, 2021. "Temporal and Spatial Variation of Aboveground Biomass of Pinus densata and Its Drivers in Shangri-La, CHINA," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(1), pages 1-17, December.
    11. Marlene Marques & Keith M. Reynolds & Susete Marques & Marco Marto & Steve Paplanus & José G. Borges, 2021. "A Participatory and Spatial Multicriteria Decision Approach to Prioritize the Allocation of Ecosystem Services to Management Units," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-22, July.
    12. Paavola, Jouni & Primmer, Eeva, 2019. "Governing the Provision of Insurance Value From Ecosystems," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 1-1.
    13. Tommi Ekholm, 2019. "Optimal forest rotation under carbon pricing and forest damage risk," Papers 1912.00269, arXiv.org.
    14. Ronny Rotbarth & Egbert H. Nes & Marten Scheffer & Jane Uhd Jepsen & Ole Petter Laksforsmo Vindstad & Chi Xu & Milena Holmgren, 2023. "Northern expansion is not compensating for southern declines in North American boreal forests," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-13, December.
    15. Friedrich, Stefan & Paul, Carola & Brandl, Susanne & Biber, Peter & Messerer, Katharina & Knoke, Thomas, 2019. "Economic impact of growth effects in mixed stands of Norway spruce and European beech – A simulation based study," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 65-80.
    16. Debaly, Zinsou Max & Marchand, Philippe & Girona, Miguel Montoro, 2022. "Autoregressive models for time series of random sums of positive variables: Application to tree growth as a function of climate and insect outbreak," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 471(C).
    17. Marshet Nigatu Gebeyehu & Fekadu Hailu Hirpo, 2019. "Review on Effect of Climate Change on Forest Ecosystem," International Journal of Environmental Sciences & Natural Resources, Juniper Publishers Inc., vol. 17(4), pages 126-129, February.
    18. Arkadiusz Dyjakon & Tomasz Noszczyk, 2020. "Alternative Fuels from Forestry Biomass Residue: Torrefaction Process of Horse Chestnuts, Oak Acorns, and Spruce Cones," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-19, May.
    19. Hallberg-Sramek, Isabella & Nordström, Eva-Maria & Priebe, Janina & Reimerson, Elsa & Mårald, Erland & Nordin, Annika, 2023. "Combining scientific and local knowledge improves evaluating future scenarios of forest ecosystem services," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    20. Carlos Sanz-Lazaro, 2019. "A Framework to Advance the Understanding of the Ecological Effects of Extreme Climate Events," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(21), pages 1-18, October.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:13:y:2021:i:2:p:569-:d:477352. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.