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Building Climate-Resilient Cotton Production System for Changing Climate Scenarios Using the DSSAT Model

Author

Listed:
  • Zoia Arshad Awan

    (Sustainable Agriculture and Food Programme (SAFP), World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF), Lahore 54000, Pakistan)

  • Tasneem Khaliq

    (Department of Agronomy, University of Agriculture Faisalabad (UAF), Faisalabad 38000, Pakistan)

  • Muhammad Masood Akhtar

    (Sustainable Agriculture and Food Programme (SAFP), World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF), Lahore 54000, Pakistan)

  • Asad Imran

    (Sustainable Agriculture and Food Programme (SAFP), World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF), Lahore 54000, Pakistan)

  • Muhammad Irfan

    (Sustainable Agriculture and Food Programme (SAFP), World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF), Lahore 54000, Pakistan)

  • Muhammad Jarrar Ahmed

    (Sustainable Agriculture and Food Programme (SAFP), World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF), Lahore 54000, Pakistan)

  • Ashfaq Ahmad

    (Department of Agronomy, University of Agriculture Faisalabad (UAF), Faisalabad 38000, Pakistan)

Abstract

Cotton production is highly vulnerable to climate change, and heat stress is a major constraint in the cotton zone of Punjab, Pakistan. Adaptation is perceived as a critical step to deal with forecasted and unexpected climatic conditions. The objective of this study was to standardize and authenticate a cotton crop model based on climate and crop husbandry data in order to develop an adaptation package for cotton crop production in the wake of climate change. For the study, the data were collected from the cotton-growing areas of Punjab, viz. Bahawalpur and Khanewal. After the calibration and validation against field data, the Cropping System Model CSM–CROPGRO–Cotton in the shell of the decision support system for agro-technology transfer (DSSAT) was run with a future climate generated under two representative concentrations pathways (RCPs), viz. RCPs 4.5 and 8.5 with five global circulation models (GCMs). The whole study showed that a model is an artistic tool for examining the temporal variation in cotton and determining the potential impact of planting dates on crop growth, phenology, and yield. The results showed that the future climate would have drastic effects on cotton production in the project area. Reduction in seed cotton yield (SCY) was 25.7% and 32.2% under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5, respectively. The comparison of five GCMs showed that a hot/wet climate would be more damaging than other scenarios. The simulations with different production options showed that a 10% and 5% increase in nitrogen and plant population, respectively, compared to the present would be the best strategy in the future. The model further suggested that planting conducted 15 days earlier, combined with the use of water and nitrogen (fertigation), would help to improve yield with 10% less water under the future climate. Overall, the proposed adaptation package would help to recover 33% and 37% of damages in SCY due to the climate change scenarios of RCP 4.5 and 8.5, respectively. Furthermore, the proposed package would also help the farmers increase crop yield by 7.5% over baseline (current) yield.

Suggested Citation

  • Zoia Arshad Awan & Tasneem Khaliq & Muhammad Masood Akhtar & Asad Imran & Muhammad Irfan & Muhammad Jarrar Ahmed & Ashfaq Ahmad, 2021. "Building Climate-Resilient Cotton Production System for Changing Climate Scenarios Using the DSSAT Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(19), pages 1-26, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:13:y:2021:i:19:p:10495-:d:640408
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Becker, Rike & Schüth, Christoph & Merz, Ralf & Khaliq, Tasneem & Usman, Muhammad & Beek, Tim aus der & Kumar, Rohini & Schulz, Stephan, 2023. "Increased heat stress reduces future yields of three major crops in Pakistan’s Punjab region despite intensification of irrigation," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 281(C).

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