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High-Resolution Climate Projections for a Densely Populated Mediterranean Region

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  • Mohamed Salem Nashwan

    (Department of Construction and Building Engineering, College of Engineering and Technology, Arab Academy for Science, Technology and Maritime Transport (AASTMT), 2033 Elhorria, Heliopolis, Cairo 2033, Egypt
    School of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM), Skudai 81310, Johor, Malaysia)

  • Shamsuddin Shahid

    (School of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM), Skudai 81310, Johor, Malaysia)

  • Eun-Sung Chung

    (Faculty of Civil Engineering, Seoul National University of Science and Technology, 232 Gongneung-ro, Nowon-gu, Seoul 01811, Korea)

Abstract

The present study projected future climate change for the densely populated Central North region of Egypt (CNE) for two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and two futures (near future: 2020–2059, and far future: 2060–2099), estimated by a credible subset of five global climate models (GCMs). Different bias correction models have been applied to correct the bias in the five interpolated GCMs’ outputs onto a high-resolution horizontal grid. The 0.05° CNE datasets of maximum and minimum temperatures (Tmx, and Tmn, respectively) and the 0.1° African Rainfall Climatology (ARC2) datasets represented the historical climate. The evaluation of bias correction methodologies revealed the better performance of linear and variance scaling for correcting the rainfall and temperature GCMs’ outputs, respectively. They were used to transfer the correction factor to the projections. The five statistically bias-corrected climate projections presented the uncertainty range in the future change in the climate of CNE. The rainfall is expected to increase in the near future but drastically decrease in the far future. The Tmx and Tmn are projected to increase in both future periods reaching nearly a maximum of 5.50 and 8.50 °C for Tmx and Tmn, respectively. These findings highlighted the severe consequence of climate change on the socio-economic activities in the CNE aiming for better sustainable development.

Suggested Citation

  • Mohamed Salem Nashwan & Shamsuddin Shahid & Eun-Sung Chung, 2020. "High-Resolution Climate Projections for a Densely Populated Mediterranean Region," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-22, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:12:y:2020:i:9:p:3684-:d:353382
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Renate Wilcke & Thomas Mendlik & Andreas Gobiet, 2013. "Multi-variable error correction of regional climate models," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 120(4), pages 871-887, October.
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    4. Jang Hyun Sung & Eun-Sung Chung & Shamsuddin Shahid, 2018. "Reliability–Resiliency–Vulnerability Approach for Drought Analysis in South Korea Using 28 GCMs," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-16, August.
    5. Mehmet Demirel & Hamid Moradkhani, 2016. "Assessing the impact of CMIP5 climate multi-modeling on estimating the precipitation seasonality and timing," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 135(2), pages 357-372, March.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Egypt; Nile Delta; ARC; general circulation model; CMIP5; downscaling;
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