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Analysis of the Driving Forces of Urban Expansion Based on a Modified Logistic Regression Model: A Case Study of Wuhan City, Central China

Author

Listed:
  • Ti Luo

    (College of Economics and Management, Hunan Institute of Science and Technology, Yueyang 414006, China)

  • Ronghui Tan

    (College of Management and Economics, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China)

  • Xuesong Kong

    (School of Resource and Environmental Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430079, China)

  • Jincheng Zhou

    (College of Economics and Management, Hunan Institute of Science and Technology, Yueyang 414006, China)

Abstract

Urban development policies and planning schemes are essential drivers of urban expansion in the contemporary world. However, they are usually investigated by qualitative analysis and it is difficult to use them in spatial analysis models. Within the advancement of technology regarding the geostatistical dataset, this study uses a field strength model to quantify policy-oriented factors and designs a modified logistic regression model to analyze the main drivers of urban expansion by selecting natural environment, socioeconomic development, and especially policy-oriented variables. Wuhan City in central China is taken as an example: the modified model is applied and compared with the classical model, and the driving mechanism of urban expansion in Wuhan from 2006 to 2013 is determined through spatial analysis. The results show that the urban system planning in combination with various anthropologic and environmental factors can be comprehensively quantified and described by the urban field strength. The methodological innovation of the classical logistic regression model is tested by statistical and spatial analysis methods, and the results verify that the modified regression model can be used more accurately to investigate the driving mechanism of urban expansion in the past and simulate the spatial pattern of urban evolution in the future.

Suggested Citation

  • Ti Luo & Ronghui Tan & Xuesong Kong & Jincheng Zhou, 2019. "Analysis of the Driving Forces of Urban Expansion Based on a Modified Logistic Regression Model: A Case Study of Wuhan City, Central China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-21, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:11:y:2019:i:8:p:2207-:d:222251
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Karen C Seto & Michail Fragkias & Burak Güneralp & Michael K Reilly, 2011. "A Meta-Analysis of Global Urban Land Expansion," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 6(8), pages 1-9, August.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Yanwei Zhang & Hualin Xie, 2019. "Interactive Relationship among Urban Expansion, Economic Development, and Population Growth since the Reform and Opening up in China: An Analysis Based on a Vector Error Correction Model," Land, MDPI, vol. 8(10), pages 1-31, October.
    3. Lili Zhang & Yi Miao & Haoxuan Wei & Teqi Dai, 2023. "Ecological Impacts Associated with the Qinghai–Tibet Railway and Its Influencing Factors: A Comparison Study on Diversified Research Units," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(5), pages 1-16, February.
    4. Xinxin Huang & Gang Xu & Fengtao Xiao, 2021. "Optimization of a Novel Urban Growth Simulation Model Integrating an Artificial Fish Swarm Algorithm and Cellular Automata for a Smart City," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-25, February.
    5. Lin Meng & Wentao Si, 2022. "The Driving Mechanism of Urban Land Expansion from 2005 to 2018: The Case of Yangzhou, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(23), pages 1-14, November.
    6. Kai Li & Zhili Ma & Jinjin Liu, 2019. "A New Trend in the Space–Time Distribution of Cultivated Land Occupation for Construction in China and the Impact of Population Urbanization," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(18), pages 1-23, September.
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    8. Ru Chen & Chunbo Huang, 2021. "Landscape Evolution and It’s Impact of Ecosystem Service Value of the Wuhan City, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(24), pages 1-21, December.

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