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First Quarter Chronicle of COVID-19: An Attempt to Measure Governments’ Responses

Author

Listed:
  • Şule Şahin

    (Institute for Financial and Actuarial Mathematics, Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Liverpool, Liverpool L69 7ZL, UK
    Department of Actuarial Sciences, Hacettepe University, 06800 Ankara, Turkey
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • María del Carmen Boado-Penas

    (Institute for Financial and Actuarial Mathematics, Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Liverpool, Liverpool L69 7ZL, UK
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Corina Constantinescu

    (Institute for Financial and Actuarial Mathematics, Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Liverpool, Liverpool L69 7ZL, UK
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Julia Eisenberg

    (Financial & Actuarial Mathematics, TU Wien, Wiedner Hauptstr. 8/E105-1, 1040 Vienna, Austria
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Kira Henshaw

    (Institute for Financial and Actuarial Mathematics, Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Liverpool, Liverpool L69 7ZL, UK
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Maoqi Hu

    (Institute for Financial and Actuarial Mathematics, Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Liverpool, Liverpool L69 7ZL, UK
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Jing Wang

    (Institute for Financial and Actuarial Mathematics, Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Liverpool, Liverpool L69 7ZL, UK
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Wei Zhu

    (Institute for Financial and Actuarial Mathematics, Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Liverpool, Liverpool L69 7ZL, UK
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

Abstract

The crisis caused by the outbreak of COVID-19 revealed the global unpreparedness for handling the impact of a pandemic. In this paper, we present a first quarter chronicle of COVID-19 in Hubei China, Italy and Spain, particularly focusing on infection speed, death and fatality rates. By analysing the parameters of the best fitting distributions of the available data for the three rates in each of the three regions, we illustrate the pandemic’s evolution in relation to government measures. We compared the effectiveness of lockdown measures by observing the true situation in each dataset, without proposing a mathematical model. The feasibility of obtaining a firm conclusion in regard to the best solution for containing COVID-19 is limited, with a universal solution failing to exist due to globally varying culture, mentality and behaviours. Our method provides valid insights into the individual and national actions implemented and adhered to in order to slow the effect of the pandemic during the first-wave of COVID-19.

Suggested Citation

  • Şule Şahin & María del Carmen Boado-Penas & Corina Constantinescu & Julia Eisenberg & Kira Henshaw & Maoqi Hu & Jing Wang & Wei Zhu, 2020. "First Quarter Chronicle of COVID-19: An Attempt to Measure Governments’ Responses," Risks, MDPI, vol. 8(4), pages 1-26, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jrisks:v:8:y:2020:i:4:p:115-:d:439377
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Arianna Agosto & Paolo Giudici, 2020. "A Poisson Autoregressive Model to Understand COVID-19 Contagion Dynamics," Risks, MDPI, vol. 8(3), pages 1-8, July.
    2. Fernando E. Alvarez & David Argente & Francesco Lippi, 2020. "A Simple Planning Problem for COVID-19 Lockdown," NBER Working Papers 26981, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Seth Flaxman & Swapnil Mishra & Axel Gandy & H. Juliette T. Unwin & Thomas A. Mellan & Helen Coupland & Charles Whittaker & Harrison Zhu & Tresnia Berah & Jeffrey W. Eaton & Mélodie Monod & Azra C. Gh, 2020. "Estimating the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in Europe," Nature, Nature, vol. 584(7820), pages 257-261, August.
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