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Machine Learning in Least-Squares Monte Carlo Proxy Modeling of Life Insurance Companies

Author

Listed:
  • Anne-Sophie Krah

    (Department of Mathematics, TU Kaiserslautern, Erwin-Schrödinger-Straße, Geb. 48, 67653 Kaiserslautern, Germany)

  • Zoran Nikolić

    (Mathematical Institute, University Cologne, Weyertal 86-90, 50931 Cologne, Germany)

  • Ralf Korn

    (Department of Mathematics, TU Kaiserslautern, Erwin-Schrödinger-Straße, Geb. 48, 67653 Kaiserslautern, Germany
    Department Financial Mathematics, Fraunhofer ITWM, Fraunhofer-Platz 1, 67663 Kaiserslautern, Germany)

Abstract

Under the Solvency II regime, life insurance companies are asked to derive their solvency capital requirements from the full loss distributions over the coming year. Since the industry is currently far from being endowed with sufficient computational capacities to fully simulate these distributions, the insurers have to rely on suitable approximation techniques such as the least-squares Monte Carlo (LSMC) method. The key idea of LSMC is to run only a few wisely selected simulations and to process their output further to obtain a risk-dependent proxy function of the loss. In this paper, we present and analyze various adaptive machine learning approaches that can take over the proxy modeling task. The studied approaches range from ordinary and generalized least-squares regression variants over generalized linear model (GLM) and generalized additive model (GAM) methods to multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) and kernel regression routines. We justify the combinability of their regression ingredients in a theoretical discourse. Further, we illustrate the approaches in slightly disguised real-world experiments and perform comprehensive out-of-sample tests.

Suggested Citation

  • Anne-Sophie Krah & Zoran Nikolić & Ralf Korn, 2020. "Machine Learning in Least-Squares Monte Carlo Proxy Modeling of Life Insurance Companies," Risks, MDPI, vol. 8(1), pages 1-79, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jrisks:v:8:y:2020:i:1:p:21-:d:323720
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    References listed on IDEAS

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