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Reopening International Borders without Quarantine: Contact Tracing Integrated Policy against COVID-19

Author

Listed:
  • Zidong Yu

    (Department of Land Surveying and Geo-Informatics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China)

  • Xiaolin Zhu

    (Department of Land Surveying and Geo-Informatics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China)

  • Xintao Liu

    (Department of Land Surveying and Geo-Informatics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China)

  • Tao Wei

    (School of Psychology, Shenzhen University, Shenzhen 518060, China)

  • Hsiang-Yu Yuan

    (Department of Biomedical Sciences, Jockey Club College of Veterinary Medicine and Life Sciences, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
    Centre for Applied One Health Research and Policy Advice, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China)

  • Yang Xu

    (Department of Land Surveying and Geo-Informatics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China)

  • Rui Zhu

    (Department of Land Surveying and Geo-Informatics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China)

  • Huan He

    (School of Public Administration, Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, Chengdu 611130, China)

  • Hui Wang

    (Institute for Modeling Collaboration and Innovation, University of Idaho, Moscow, ID 83844, USA)

  • Man Sing Wong

    (Department of Land Surveying and Geo-Informatics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China)

  • Peng Jia

    (Department of Land Surveying and Geo-Informatics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China)

  • Song Guo

    (Department of Computing, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China)

  • Wenzhong Shi

    (Department of Land Surveying and Geo-Informatics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China)

  • Wu Chen

    (Department of Land Surveying and Geo-Informatics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China)

Abstract

With the COVID-19 vaccination widely implemented in most countries, propelled by the need to revive the tourism economy, there is a growing prospect for relieving the social distancing regulation and reopening borders in tourism-oriented countries and regions. This need incentivizes stakeholders to develop border control strategies that fully evaluate health risks if mandatory quarantines are lifted. In this study, we have employed a computational approach to investigate the contact tracing integrated policy in different border-reopening scenarios in Hong Kong, China. Explicitly, by reconstructing the COVID-19 transmission from historical data, specific scenarios with joint effects of digital contact tracing and other concurrent measures (i.e., controlling arrival population and community nonpharmacological interventions) are applied to forecast the future development of the pandemic. Built on a modified SEIR epidemic model with a 30% vaccination coverage, the results suggest that scenarios with digital contact tracing and quick isolation intervention can reduce the infectious population by 92.11% compared to those without contact tracing. By further restricting the inbound population with a 10,000 daily quota and applying moderate-to-strong community nonpharmacological interventions (NPIs), the average daily confirmed cases in the forecast period of 60 days can be well controlled at around 9 per day (95% CI: 7–12). Two main policy recommendations are drawn from the study. First, digital contact tracing would be an effective countermeasure for reducing local virus spread, especially when it is applied along with a moderate level of vaccination coverage. Second, implementing a daily quota on inbound travelers and restrictive community NPIs would further keep the local infection under control. This study offers scientific evidence and prospective guidance for developing and instituting plans to lift mandatory border control policies in preparing for the global economic recovery.

Suggested Citation

  • Zidong Yu & Xiaolin Zhu & Xintao Liu & Tao Wei & Hsiang-Yu Yuan & Yang Xu & Rui Zhu & Huan He & Hui Wang & Man Sing Wong & Peng Jia & Song Guo & Wenzhong Shi & Wu Chen, 2021. "Reopening International Borders without Quarantine: Contact Tracing Integrated Policy against COVID-19," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(14), pages 1-13, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:18:y:2021:i:14:p:7494-:d:594040
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    Cited by:

    1. Zidong Yu & Xintao Liu, 2023. "Spatial variations of the third and fourth COVID-19 waves in Hong Kong: A comparative study using built environment and socio-demographic characteristics," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 50(5), pages 1144-1160, June.
    2. Febe Brackx & Fien Vanongeval & Yessika Adelwin Natalia & Geert Molenberghs & Thérèse Steenberghen, 2022. "The Effect of Transborder Mobility on COVID-19 Incidences in Belgium," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(16), pages 1-25, August.

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