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Modelling the Effectiveness of Epidemic Control Measures in Preventing the Transmission of COVID-19 in Malaysia

Author

Listed:
  • Balvinder Singh Gill

    (Institute for Medical Research (IMR), Ministry of Health, Kuala Lumpur 50588, Malaysia)

  • Vivek Jason Jayaraj

    (Department of Social and Preventive Medicine, Medical Faculty, University Malaya, Kuala Lumpur 50603, Malaysia
    Ministry of Health, Malaysia, Putrajaya 62590, Malaysia)

  • Sarbhan Singh

    (Institute for Medical Research (IMR), Ministry of Health, Kuala Lumpur 50588, Malaysia)

  • Sumarni Mohd Ghazali

    (Institute for Medical Research (IMR), Ministry of Health, Kuala Lumpur 50588, Malaysia)

  • Yoon Ling Cheong

    (Institute for Medical Research (IMR), Ministry of Health, Kuala Lumpur 50588, Malaysia)

  • Nuur Hafizah Md Iderus

    (Institute for Medical Research (IMR), Ministry of Health, Kuala Lumpur 50588, Malaysia)

  • Bala Murali Sundram

    (Institute for Medical Research (IMR), Ministry of Health, Kuala Lumpur 50588, Malaysia)

  • Tahir Bin Aris

    (Institute for Medical Research (IMR), Ministry of Health, Kuala Lumpur 50588, Malaysia)

  • Hishamshah Mohd Ibrahim

    (Ministry of Health, Malaysia, Putrajaya 62590, Malaysia)

  • Boon Hao Hong

    (Faculty of Computer Science and Information Technology, Universiti Malaysia Sarawak, Kota Samarahan 94300, Malaysia)

  • Jane Labadin

    (Faculty of Computer Science and Information Technology, Universiti Malaysia Sarawak, Kota Samarahan 94300, Malaysia)

Abstract

Malaysia is currently facing an outbreak of COVID-19. We aim to present the first study in Malaysia to report the reproduction numbers and develop a mathematical model forecasting COVID-19 transmission by including isolation, quarantine, and movement control measures. We utilized a susceptible, exposed, infectious, and recovered (SEIR) model by incorporating isolation, quarantine, and movement control order (MCO) taken in Malaysia. The simulations were fitted into the Malaysian COVID-19 active case numbers, allowing approximation of parameters consisting of probability of transmission per contact ( β ), average number of contacts per day per case ( ζ ), and proportion of close-contact traced per day ( q ). The effective reproduction number (R t ) was also determined through this model. Our model calibration estimated that ( β ), ( ζ ), and ( q ) were 0.052, 25 persons, and 0.23, respectively. The (R t ) was estimated to be 1.68. MCO measures reduce the peak number of active COVID-19 cases by 99.1% and reduce ( ζ ) from 25 (pre-MCO) to 7 (during MCO). The flattening of the epidemic curve was also observed with the implementation of these control measures. We conclude that isolation, quarantine, and MCO measures are essential to break the transmission of COVID-19 in Malaysia.

Suggested Citation

  • Balvinder Singh Gill & Vivek Jason Jayaraj & Sarbhan Singh & Sumarni Mohd Ghazali & Yoon Ling Cheong & Nuur Hafizah Md Iderus & Bala Murali Sundram & Tahir Bin Aris & Hishamshah Mohd Ibrahim & Boon Ha, 2020. "Modelling the Effectiveness of Epidemic Control Measures in Preventing the Transmission of COVID-19 in Malaysia," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(15), pages 1-13, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:17:y:2020:i:15:p:5509-:d:392249
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Soetaert, Karline & Petzoldt, Thomas & Setzer, R. Woodrow, 2010. "Solving Differential Equations in R: Package deSolve," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 33(i09).
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    2. Kamarul Imran Musa & Wan Nor Arifin & Mohd Hafiz Mohd & Mohammad Subhi Jamiluddin & Noor Atinah Ahmad & Xin Wee Chen & Tengku Muhammad Hanis & Awang Bulgiba, 2021. "Measuring Time-Varying Effective Reproduction Numbers for COVID-19 and Their Relationship with Movement Control Order in Malaysia," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(6), pages 1-13, March.
    3. Mahmoud Al-shami & Rawad Abdulghafor & Abdulaziz Aborujilah & Abubakar Yagoub & Sherzod Turaev & Mohammed A. H. Ali, 2023. "COVID-19 Tracking Applications Acceptance among General Populace: An Overview in Malaysia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(5), pages 1-13, February.
    4. Zhuang Wu & Yuanyuan Wang & Jing Gao & Jiayang Song & Yi Zhang, 2022. "A Multistage Time-Delay Control Model for COVID-19 Transmission," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-23, November.
    5. Kurubaran Ganasegeran & Mohd Fadzly Amar Jamil & Maheshwara Rao Appannan & Alan Swee Hock Ch’ng & Irene Looi & Kalaiarasu M. Peariasamy, 2022. "Spatial Dynamics and Multiscale Regression Modelling of Population Level Indicators for COVID-19 Spread in Malaysia," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(4), pages 1-13, February.
    6. Yea Lu Tay & Zalilah Abdullah & Kalvina Chelladorai & Lee Lan Low & Seng Fah Tong, 2021. "Perception of the Movement Control Order during the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Qualitative Study in Malaysia," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(16), pages 1-13, August.
    7. Sumarni Mohd Ghazali & Sarbhan Singh & Asrul Anuar Zulkifli & Yoon Ling Cheong & Nuur Hafizah Md Iderus & Ahmed Syahmi Syafiq Md Zamri & Nadhar Ahmad Jaafar & Chee Herng Lai & Wan Noraini Wan Mohamed , 2022. "COVID-19 in Malaysia: Descriptive Epidemiologic Characteristics of the First Wave," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(7), pages 1-14, March.
    8. Ziyuan Liu & Zhi Li & Weiming Chen & Yunpu Zhao & Hanxun Yue & Zhenzhen Wu, 2020. "Path Optimization of Medical Waste Transport Routes in the Emergent Public Health Event of COVID-19: A Hybrid Optimization Algorithm Based on the Immune–Ant Colony Algorithm," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(16), pages 1-18, August.

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