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Predicting the Results of the 2010 Midterm Elections: Judgment, Econometrics, and Prediction Markets

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  • Alfred G. Cuzán

Abstract

Alfred Cuzán offers his postmortem on forecasts made for the midterm elections for the U.S. House of Representatives. His evaluation compares the judgment of three experts, six statistical models, and one (betting) prediction market. It seems like the best political forecasts emerge when forecasters place their bets. However, this issue of Foresight contains a related article on corporate prediction markets (p. 35), where the challenges of implementation are arguably greater than those in election markets. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2011

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  • Alfred G. Cuzán, 2011. "Predicting the Results of the 2010 Midterm Elections: Judgment, Econometrics, and Prediction Markets," Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, International Institute of Forecasters, issue 21, pages 41-44, Spring.
    • Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2011:i:21:p:41-44
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