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“Been There, Done That”: Perils, Pitfalls, and Promises of Long-Term Projections

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  • Ira Sohn

Abstract

Twenty-five years ago, a team led by Nobel laureate Wassily Leontief applied the United Nations World Input-Output Model to make forecasts of world fuel and mineral resources for the year 2000 and beyond. Ira Sohn, a member of that team, reflects on his experience with this long-term forecasting endeavor. Noting that long-term forecasting is fraught with uncertainties, Ira analyzes the sources of the forecasting errors made and suggests ways to improve long-term modeling. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2008

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  • Ira Sohn, 2008. "“Been There, Done That”: Perils, Pitfalls, and Promises of Long-Term Projections," Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, International Institute of Forecasters, issue 9, pages 43-48, Spring.
    • Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2008:i:9:p:43-48
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